WC26 Daily Hub · Matchup Preview · Pre-baked June 11, verified day-of
0–1 — final score: Haiti 0, Scotland 1
Haiti win 14 percent, draw 19 percent, Scotland win 67 percent.
predicted score 0-2
published consensus — logged Jun 12, 3:53 PM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 0–1 (Scotland win) · the logged call had it at 67% · Brier 0.168 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): high-variance; Haiti's press vs Scotland's thin midfield makes this far livelier than the ratings gap.
After 6 matches in Group C: Haiti 4th on 0 pts (0-0-3, -6 GD), Scotland 3rd on 3 pts (1-0-2, -3 GD). Brazil and Morocco share the lead on 7 pts; both sit outside the top two (Haiti 7 pts back, Scotland 4 pts back) — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil† | drew, won, won | 7 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco† | drew, won, won | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | won, lost, lost | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | lost, lost, lost | 2 | -6 | 0 |
~77°F · moderate humidity (42% RH) · WBGT 74.3°F
High
Hot match-up, and a real edge for Haiti: Scotland are +11°F above their home climate while Haiti are well-adapted to this heat.
Group C, MD1 | Sat June 13 — 9:00 PM ET (FS1) | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
The knowledge base calls this fixture what it is for Scotland: a must-win if they're to progress. Steve Clarke has rebuilt since a poor qualifying campaign — a switch to a two-striker shape (Shankland–Adams) producing 4-1 and 4-0 friendly wins — but it comes at a price: a two-man midfield of McTominay and Ferguson, with McTominay pulled deeper than his preferred no. 10 role. Haiti are the tournament's chaos merchants — direct on the ball, aggressively pressing in their attacking third, and prone to the defensive lapses that come with it. Their volatility cuts both ways here: Scotland's two-man midfield can be swarmed by Haiti's press, but Haiti's lapses are exactly what a direct two-striker team punishes. Bellegarde's arrival has given Haiti genuine build-up structure (a 4-2-3-1 wrinkle), and Wilson Isidor adds real striker quality next to Nazon.
Scott McTominay vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde — the two midfield catalysts, each carrying outsized creative responsibility in understaffed midfields.
Ben Gannon-Doak, the breakout candidate. Isidor's integration. Aaron Hickey's ball progression as Scotland's pressure valve.
SCO 4-4-2 — Gannon-Doak vs Christie on the wing; Gunn over Gordon in goal. HAI 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 — Isidor–Nazon pairing. (Verify day-of.)
Craig Gordon, 43, is the oldest player at the World Cup. Haiti played their entire "home" qualifying campaign abroad due to the crisis at home. Derrick Etienne Jr. is one of four family members to represent Haiti.
Selection notes were pre-baked June 11 and are verified day-of in the edition, not here — anything marked “verify” must be confirmed before it is load-bearing.
Auto-gathered 2026-06-13 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
model projection: 3.03 total goals · over 1.5 80% · over 2.5 58% · over 3.5 36%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haiti | +482 | 16% | 14% | -2.3% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +350 | 21% | 19% | -2.0% |
| 1X2 | Scotland | -189 | 62% | 67% | +4.3% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | -149 | 58% | 58% | +0.4% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | +130 | 42% | 42% | -0.4% |
| Total goals | Over 2.75 | -125 | 53% | 58% | +5.1% |
| Total goals | Under 2.75 | +105 | 47% | 42% | -5.1% |
| Asian handicap | Haiti +1 | -103 | 49% | 33% | -16.0% |
| Asian handicap | Scotland -1 | -115 | 51% | 67% | +16.0% |
Over 2.75 (Total goals), model edge +5.1%
Scotland (1X2), model edge +4.3%
the model likes these, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so they are not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
spreads away -1: model-priced edge +16.0% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 13, 9:59 AM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 8 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2.
Markets to watch (pre-baked): both teams to score; over 2.5.