WC26 Daily Hub · Matchup Preview · Pre-baked June 11, verified day-of
0–1 — final score: Scotland 0, Morocco 1
Scotland win 16 percent, draw 27 percent, Morocco win 57 percent.
predicted score 0-1
published consensus — logged Jun 19, 1:17 AM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 0–1 (Morocco win) · the logged call had it at 57% · Brier 0.281 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): Morocco's midfield numbers should tell; Scotland's path is dead balls and McTominay.
After 6 matches in Group C: Scotland 3rd on 3 pts (1-0-2, -3 GD), Morocco 2nd on 7 pts (2-1-0, +3 GD). Brazil and Morocco share the lead on 7 pts; Morocco hold a top-two spot; Scotland 4 pts back of the cutline — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil† | drew, won, won | 7 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco† | drew, won, won | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | won, lost, lost | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | lost, lost, lost | 2 | -6 | 0 |
~76°F · moderate humidity (45% RH) · WBGT 73.4°F
Moderate
Warm out; Scotland are +10°F outside their comfort zone while Morocco are the better-acclimated side.
Group C, MD2 | Fri June 19 — 6:00 PM ET (Fox) | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
A structural nightmare for Scotland on paper. Their new two-striker shape leaves a two-man midfield of McTominay and Ferguson — and Morocco's 3-2-5 is purpose-built to overload exactly that zone, with El Khannouss and the double pivot outnumbering them centrally while Hakimi and Brahim Díaz run their triangle drills down Scotland's left. The Robertson/Tierney side facing Hakimi at full gallop is the most lopsided flank matchup of the round. Scotland's counterweights: Shankland–Adams gives them a genuine direct outlet that bypasses midfield entirely, Hickey can carry through pressure, and set pieces against a Morocco back line patched by injuries (Diop for Aguerd) are a real avenue. But they'll need McTominay's hero gene more than tactics.
Achraf Hakimi vs Andy Robertson — captain against captain, on the flank where the game tilts.
Brahim Díaz's form continuing. Gannon-Doak's pace as Scotland's transition hope. El Mourabet vs McTominay's late runs.
SCO 4-4-2; MAR 4-2-3-1/3-2-5 — Mazraoui status carryover. (Refresh.)
Scotland have never escaped a World Cup group in nine tries. Morocco's 2022 fourth place is Africa's best-ever finish.
Auto-gathered 2026-06-19 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
model projection: 2.10 total goals · over 1.5 62% · over 2.5 35% · over 3.5 16%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Scotland | +475 | 17% | 16% | -0.7% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +270 | 26% | 27% | +0.9% |
| 1X2 | Morocco | -149 | 57% | 57% | -0.2% |
| Total goals | Over 2 | -143 | 57% | 48% | -8.8% |
| Total goals | Under 2 | +125 | 43% | 52% | +8.8% |
| Total goals | Over 2.25 | -105 | 49% | 35% | -13.8% |
| Total goals | Under 2.25 | -115 | 51% | 65% | +13.8% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | +121 | 43% | 35% | -7.9% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | -149 | 57% | 65% | +7.9% |
| Asian handicap | Scotland +0.5 | +133 | 42% | 38% | -3.7% |
| Asian handicap | Morocco -0.5 | -152 | 58% | 62% | +3.7% |
Under 2.5 (Total goals), model edge +7.9%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
totals under 2: model-priced edge +8.8% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals under 2.25: model-priced edge +13.8% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 19, 12:24 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 4 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 2 can push (P 27%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.
Markets to watch (pre-baked): Morocco −1; McTominay/set-piece props.