WC26 Daily Hub · Matchup Preview · Pre-baked June 11, verified day-of
4–2 — final score: Morocco 4, Haiti 2
Morocco win 86 percent, draw 11 percent, Haiti win 3 percent.
predicted score 2-0
published consensus — logged Jun 24, 12:55 AM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 4–2 (Morocco win) · the logged call had it at 86% · Brier 0.034 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): Morocco with goals; over profile.
After 6 matches in Group C: Morocco 2nd on 7 pts (2-1-0, +3 GD), Haiti 4th on 0 pts (0-0-3, -6 GD). Brazil and Morocco share the lead on 7 pts; Morocco hold a top-two spot; Haiti 7 pts back of the cutline.
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil† | drew, won, won | 7 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco† | drew, won, won | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | won, lost, lost | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | lost, lost, lost | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Indoors — climate-controlled. Heat not a factor.
Morocco's 3-2-5 ball dominance against Haiti's pressing bravery — a volatility mismatch. Haiti's attacking-third press will create a few genuine turnovers against Morocco's patient circulation, but every miss leaves Hakimi and Díaz running their right-side triangle at a retreating back four. If Morocco need goals for seeding or safety, this profiles as their most open fixture; Haiti's counters through Bellegarde and Isidor keep the scoreboard honest.
Brahim Díaz vs Haiti's recovery defense.
Saibari's false-nine evolution; Nazon chasing Haiti's first WC goal since 1974; El Khannouss's role.
Haiti's 1974 goal ended Dino Zoff's record shutout streak. Morocco can match 2022's group-stage points haul here.
Auto-gathered 2026-06-24 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
model projection: 2.76 total goals · over 1.5 76% · over 2.5 52% · over 3.5 30%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morocco | -556 | 82% | 86% | +4.4% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +650 | 13% | 11% | -1.4% |
| 1X2 | Haiti | +1600 | 6% | 3% | -2.9% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | -175 | 60% | 52% | -8.1% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | +138 | 40% | 48% | +8.1% |
| Total goals | Over 3 | -115 | 51% | 39% | -12.5% |
| Total goals | Under 3 | -105 | 49% | 61% | +12.5% |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | +130 | 41% | 30% | -11.1% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | -167 | 59% | 70% | +11.1% |
| Asian handicap | Morocco -2 | -114 | 51% | 54% | +3.0% |
| Asian handicap | Haiti +2 | -106 | 49% | 46% | -3.0% |
Morocco (1X2), model edge +4.4%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Morocco @ -526 (draftkings), edge 5.5pp · settled won for +0.19u · CLV +1.2pp.
totals under 2.5: model-priced edge +8.1% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals under 3: model-priced edge +12.5% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals under 3.5: model-priced edge +11.1% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 24, 12:19 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 3 can push (P 22%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.