WC26 Daily Hub · Matchup Preview · Pre-baked June 11, verified day-of
3–2 — final score: Türkiye 3, United States 2
Türkiye win 29 percent, draw 23 percent, United States win 48 percent.
predicted score 1-1
published consensus — logged Jun 25, 12:54 AM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 3–2 (Türkiye win) · the logged call had it at 29% · Brier 0.789 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): even; home crowd vs superior creators.
After 6 matches in Group D: Türkiye 4th on 3 pts (1-0-2, -2 GD), United States 1st on 6 pts (2-0-1, +4 GD). United States lead the group on 6 pts; United States hold a top-two spot; Türkiye 1 pt back of the cutline.
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | won, won, lost | 8 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia† | won, lost, drew | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay† | lost, won, drew | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | lost, lost, won | 3 | -2 | 3 |
~68°F · moderate humidity (67% RH) · WBGT 70.2°F
Mild
Comfortable conditions — heat is a non-factor for both sides.
The likely Group D decider, prime time at SoFi. Türkiye's central overloads attack the seam question in Pochettino's hybrid back three — Güler and Yıldız operating between Freeman's hybrid zone and the CBs is the hardest spatial problem the US face all group. The US's wide mechanism (Robinson high, Pulisic inside) attacks Türkiye's narrow rest defense where it's thinnest. Two positionally fluid teams; the one that keeps its rest-defense discipline through 90 nervous minutes wins the group.
Arda Güler vs Tyler Adams' covering radius — the playmaker against the fireman.
Pulisic vs Çelik; Çalhanoğlu's set pieces vs the US zonal scheme; Richards' possible return.
The US have never played a World Cup knockout match on home soil — the 1994 R16 loss came on July 4th; this group decides the path to avoid déjà vu.
Auto-gathered 2026-06-25 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
model projection: 3.14 total goals · over 1.5 82% · over 2.5 61% · over 3.5 39%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Türkiye | +255 | 27% | 29% | +1.8% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +285 | 25% | 23% | -1.6% |
| 1X2 | United States | +100 | 48% | 48% | -0.2% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | -153 | 58% | 61% | +3.1% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | +127 | 42% | 39% | -3.1% |
| Total goals | Over 2.75 | -120 | 52% | 61% | +8.6% |
| Total goals | Under 2.75 | +100 | 48% | 39% | -8.6% |
| Total goals | Over 3 | +115 | 45% | 50% | +4.6% |
| Total goals | Under 3 | -132 | 55% | 50% | -4.6% |
| Asian handicap | Türkiye +0.5 | -118 | 52% | 61% | +9.0% |
| Asian handicap | United States -0.5 | -103 | 48% | 39% | -9.0% |
Over 3 (Total goals), model edge +4.6%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Over 2.5 @ -135 (betonlineag), edge 4.1pp · settled won for +0.74u · CLV +2.3pp.
Logged pick: Türkiye +0.5 @ +101 (betonlineag), edge 4.1pp · settled won for +1.01u · CLV +3.5pp.
Logged pick: Türkiye @ +310 (draftkings), edge 5.4pp · settled won for +3.10u · CLV +3.5pp.
totals over 2.75: model-priced edge +8.6% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
spreads home 0.5: model-priced edge +9.0% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 25, 9:26 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 3 can push (P 22%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.