WC26 Daily Hub · Matchup Preview · Pre-baked June 11, verified day-of
1–1 — final score: Egypt 1, Iran 1
Egypt win 31 percent, draw 29 percent, Iran win 39 percent.
predicted score 0-1
published consensus — logged Jun 26, 6:53 PM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 1–1 (draw) · the logged call had it at 29% · Brier 0.749 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): dead-even, deeply under-flavored.
After 6 matches in Group G: Egypt 2nd on 5 pts (1-2-0, +2 GD), Iran 3rd on 3 pts (0-3-0, 0 GD). Belgium and Egypt share the lead on 5 pts; Egypt hold a top-two spot; Iran 2 pts back of the cutline — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium† | drew, drew, won | 6 | +4 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt† | drew, won, drew | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | drew, drew, drew | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | drew, lost, lost | 4 | -6 | 1 |
~63°F · moderate humidity (69% RH) · WBGT 66.0°F
Mild
Comfortable conditions — heat is a non-factor for both sides.
Two deep blocks and two great transition forwards — the rare game where neither team wants the ball, decided by whoever's superstar makes the cleaner break. Salah vs Iran's veteran low block; Taremi vs Egypt's 5-4-1. Set pieces and individual moments carry outsized weight; midfield control is almost beside the point. Group math (with Belgium presumably above) likely makes this a straight elimination duel for second or a third-place ticket.
Mohamed Salah vs Mehdi Taremi — not on the same blade of grass, but absolutely in the same sentence.
Emam Ashour vs Ezatolahi's zone; Marmoush's pressing of Iran's slow build; penalties/dead-ball lottery.
Egypt's first-ever World Cup win could come in their fifth appearance, 92 years after their first. Iran have six group-stage exits in seven trips.
Auto-gathered 2026-06-26 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
⚠️ No specific injury, suspension, or card-accumulation details were retrievable from the Egypt vs Iran team-news page before the search tool hit its session rate limit. No verifiable updates found beyond standings context.
model projection: 2.11 total goals · over 1.5 62% · over 2.5 35% · over 3.5 16%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egypt | +175 | 35% | 31% | -3.4% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +165 | 36% | 29% | -6.7% |
| 1X2 | Iran | +230 | 29% | 39% | +10.0% |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | -190 | 62% | 62% | +0.5% |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | +146 | 38% | 38% | -0.5% |
| Total goals | Over 2 | +105 | 47% | 48% | +1.4% |
| Total goals | Under 2 | -123 | 53% | 52% | -1.4% |
| Asian handicap | Egypt -0.5 | +172 | 36% | 32% | -4.1% |
| Asian handicap | Iran +0.5 | -196 | 64% | 68% | +4.1% |
Iran (1X2), model edge +10.0%
Iran +0.5 (Asian handicap), model edge +4.1%
the model likes these, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so they are not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Iran @ +280 (draftkings), edge 13.9pp · settled lost for -1.00u · CLV +3.9pp.
Logged pick: Iran +0.5 @ -164 (betus), edge 7.7pp · settled won for +0.61u · CLV +3.6pp.
market snapshot Jun 26, 9:21 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 2 can push (P 27%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.