Group I6/6 played
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | won, won, won | 10 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | won, won, lost | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | lost, lost, won | 8 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | lost, lost, lost | 1 | -11 | 0 |
The Call
What the model says
Senegal win 69 percent, draw 21 percent, Iraq win 10 percent.
predicted score 1-0
published consensus — logged Jun 26, 12:18 PM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 5–0 (Senegal win) · the logged call had it at 69% · Brier 0.145 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): Senegal win; margin is the real market given tiebreakers.
Stakes
The table as it stands
After 6 matches in Group I: Senegal 3rd on 3 pts (1-0-2, +2 GD), Iraq 4th on 0 pts (0-0-3, -11 GD). France lead the group on 9 pts; both sit outside the top two (Senegal 3 pts back, Iraq 6 pts back) — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
Sweat Factor
How the heat stacks up
Actual · as of 2026-07-20 08:58 ET
~68°F · humid (82% RH) · WBGT 73.2°F
Mild
Comfortable conditions — heat is a non-factor for both sides.
Senegal
-11.7°F vs home
Iraq
-11.2°F vs home
The Read
Tactical preview
Senegal's relentless wide-high press against the most compressed block in the field — likely with Senegal needing a win and favorable math. Iraq's banks of four will invite the siege; Senegal's block-breaking runs through Mané and Jackson's movement plus the midfield surges of Camara and Diarra. Iraq's chaos-press front two and set-piece hunting is their lone scoring grammar, and Senegal's high line gives Aymen Hussein the one thing a target striker needs: a defined channel to attack.
Key Duel
Sadio Mané vs Iraq's right-side block — legacy minutes against massed ranks.
Watch For
Goal-difference urgency dictating Senegal's risk profile; Mbaye's spark role; Jalal Hassan's shot-stopping ceiling.
Margin Notes
Thiaw's golden-goal history makes him the patron saint of Senegalese knockout chaos. Arnold has now taken two different nations through World Cup group stages (pending this result).
The Wire
What's being reported
Auto-gathered 2026-06-26 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
- Édouard Mendy is a major injury doubt for Senegal after suffering a ligament problem in the match against Norway. Le Havre stopper Mory Diaw is expected to start in his absence. (source: https://www.whoscored.com/matches/1976996/preview/international-fifa-world-cup-2026-senegal-iraq)
- Iraq have no absentees heading into this match, but could look to utilise their squad given they can no longer reach the knockout stages. (source: https://www.whoscored.com/matches/1976996/preview/international-fifa-world-cup-2026-senegal-iraq)
The Market
Odds & best bet
model projection: 2.45 total goals · over 1.5 70% · over 2.5 44% · over 3.5 23%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Senegal | -417 | 77% | 69% | -7.8% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +550 | 15% | 21% | +5.8% |
| 1X2 | Iraq | +1100 | 8% | 10% | +2.0% |
| Total goals | Over 3 | -125 | 54% | 29% | -24.3% |
| Total goals | Under 3 | +108 | 46% | 71% | +24.3% |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | +124 | 42% | 23% | -19.0% |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | -159 | 58% | 77% | +19.0% |
| Asian handicap | Senegal -2 | +102 | 48% | 31% | -16.4% |
| Asian handicap | Iraq +2 | -118 | 52% | 69% | +16.4% |
Model lean · stale line
Draw (1X2), model edge +5.8%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Draw @ +550 (draftkings), edge 6.0pp · settled lost for -1.00u · CLV +0.2pp.
totals under 3: model-priced edge +24.3% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals under 3.5: model-priced edge +19.0% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
spreads away 2: model-priced edge +16.4% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 26, 12:18 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 3 can push (P 21%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.
Show score grid
Senegal
Iraq
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