Group K6/6 played
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | won, won, drew | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | drew, won, drew | 6 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | DR Congo | drew, lost, won | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | lost, lost, lost | 2 | -9 | 0 |
The Call
What the model says
Colombia win 76 percent, draw 17 percent, DR Congo win 6 percent.
predicted score 2-0
published consensus — logged Jun 23, 9:19 PM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 1–0 (Colombia win) · the logged call had it at 76% · Brier 0.091 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): Colombia, with a real DRC draw tail.
Stakes
The table as it stands
After 6 matches in Group K: Colombia 1st on 7 pts (2-1-0, +3 GD), DR Congo 3rd on 4 pts (1-1-1, +1 GD). Colombia lead the group on 7 pts; Colombia hold a top-two spot; DR Congo 1 pt back of the cutline — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
Sweat Factor
How the heat stacks up
Actual · as of 2026-07-20 08:58 ET
~65°F · humid (88% RH) · WBGT 71.0°F
Moderate
Warm out; Colombia are +10°F outside their comfort zone while DR Congo are the better-acclimated side.
Colombia
+10.0°F vs home
DR Congo
-9.6°F vs home
The Read
Tactical preview
Group K, MD2 | Tue June 23 — 10:00 PM ET (FS1) | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
A Premier League flank war transplanted to Guadalajara: Luis Díaz against Aaron Wan-Bissaka, one of the few defenders alive with the 1v1 chops to make that a fair fight. Around it, Colombia's eternal 4-2-3-1 with James probing against DRC's compact 4-1-4-1 — and DRC's counter equity is real if Wissa rounds into form, because Colombia's fullback-heavy pressing leaves their shaky CB pairing exposed in space. The Moutoussamy–Sadiki pivot can actually compete with Ríos and Lerma; this is a trap game dressed as a formality.
Key Duel
Luis Díaz vs Aaron Wan-Bissaka — appointment viewing inside an otherwise patient game.
Watch For
Wissa's form arc. James' dead-ball deliveries vs Mbemba's organization. Andrés Gómez off the bench.
Shapes & Selection
COL 4-2-3-1; COD 4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1. (Refresh.)
Margin Notes
James led all of CONMEBOL qualifying with 58 chances created — 28 more than second place. DRC's last World Cup was 1974 as Zaire.
The Wire
What's being reported
Auto-gathered 2026-06-23 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
(Group K — 10:00 PM ET, Estadio Akron, Guadalajara)
- Colombia have no significant injury concerns reported ahead of this fixture. (source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/colombia-vs-dr-congo-prediction-093500942.html)
- For DR Congo, coach Sebastien Desabre named an unchanged squad after the Portugal draw and there are no reported suspensions. Yoane Wissa, the Newcastle United forward who scored DR Congo's historic goal against Portugal, is fully fit and leads the attack. (source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/colombia-vs-dr-congo-prediction-093500942.html)
- DR Congo's Chancel Mbemba risks suspension against Colombia after picking up a booking versus Portugal in Matchday 1. (source: https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/colombia/world-cup-2026/preview/colombia-vs-congo-dr-prediction-team-news-lineups_599761.html)
- Sports Mole predicted XIs — Colombia (4-3-3): Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Lucumi, Mojica; Rios, Lerma; Arias, Rodriguez, Diaz; Suarez. DR Congo (4-3-3): Mpasi; Wan-Bissaka, Mbemba, Tuanzebe, Kayembe; Mukau, Moutoussamy, Sadiki; Bongonda, Bakambu, Wissa. (source: https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/colombia/world-cup-2026/team-news/colombia-vs-congo-dr-injury-suspension-lists-predicted-xis--world-cup-2026_599783.html)
The Market
Odds & best bet
model projection: 2.35 total goals · over 1.5 68% · over 2.5 42% · over 3.5 21%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colombia | -196 | 63% | 76% | +12.9% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +300 | 24% | 17% | -6.4% |
| 1X2 | DR Congo | +650 | 13% | 6% | -6.5% |
| Total goals | Over 2.25 | -115 | 51% | 42% | -9.3% |
| Total goals | Under 2.25 | -105 | 49% | 58% | +9.3% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | +118 | 44% | 42% | -2.2% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | -141 | 56% | 58% | +2.2% |
| Asian handicap | Colombia -1 | -109 | 50% | 64% | +14.3% |
| Asian handicap | DR Congo +1 | -108 | 50% | 36% | -14.3% |
Model lean · stale line
Colombia (1X2), model edge +12.9%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Under 2.25 @ -115 (bovada), edge 4.7pp · settled won for +0.87u · CLV -2.1pp.
Logged pick: Colombia @ -185 (draftkings), edge 13.9pp · settled won for +0.54u · CLV +1.0pp.
totals under 2.25: model-priced edge +9.3% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
spreads home -1: model-priced edge +14.3% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 23, 9:19 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 6 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2.
Markets to watch (pre-baked): DRC +1; under.
Show score grid
Colombia
DR Congo
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