Group K6/6 played
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | won, won, drew | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | drew, won, drew | 6 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | DR Congo | drew, lost, won | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | lost, lost, lost | 2 | -9 | 0 |
The Call
What the model says
DR Congo win 36 percent, draw 31 percent, Uzbekistan win 32 percent.
predicted score 1-0
published consensus — logged Jun 27, 11:54 AM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 3–1 (DR Congo win) · the logged call had it at 36% · Brier 0.611 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): tight and tense; draw/under profile.
Stakes
The table as it stands
After 6 matches in Group K: DR Congo 3rd on 4 pts (1-1-1, +1 GD), Uzbekistan 4th on 0 pts (0-0-3, -9 GD). Colombia lead the group on 7 pts; both sit outside the top two (DR Congo 1 pt back, Uzbekistan 5 pts back) — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
Sweat Factor
How the heat stacks up
Indoors — climate-controlled. Heat not a factor.
The Read
Tactical preview
The debut-dreams decider: two playoff/first-time qualifiers likely fighting for third-place survival. Uzbekistan's 5-4-1 verticality against DRC's compact 4-1-4-1 means set pieces, long balls and midfield attrition — where DRC's Sadiki–Moutoussamy pivot against Hamrobekov and Shukurov is a legitimately good engine-room fight. Khusanov against Wissa/Bakambu's movement is the class matchup; Shomurodov against Mbemba's organization the counter-version.
Key Duel
Abdukodir Khusanov vs Yoane Wissa — the group's best defender against its most needed striker.
Watch For
Fayzullaev's stage; Elia's directness; whoever's federation history weighs heavier in the final ten minutes.
Margin Notes
DRC's only prior World Cup was 1974 as Zaire; Uzbekistan's is right now. One of these federations likely gets its first-ever knockout berth.
The Market
Odds & best bet
model projection: 1.98 total goals · over 1.5 59% · over 2.5 32% · over 3.5 14%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | DR Congo | -149 | 57% | 36% | -21.1% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +290 | 25% | 31% | +6.9% |
| 1X2 | Uzbekistan | +425 | 18% | 32% | +14.2% |
| Total goals | Over 2 | -141 | 56% | 44% | -12.6% |
| Total goals | Under 2 | +120 | 44% | 56% | +12.6% |
| Total goals | Over 2.25 | -110 | 50% | 32% | -18.1% |
| Total goals | Under 2.25 | -110 | 50% | 68% | +18.1% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | +120 | 43% | 32% | -11.6% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | -145 | 57% | 68% | +11.6% |
| Asian handicap | DR Congo -0.5 | -144 | 57% | 44% | -13.3% |
| Asian handicap | Uzbekistan +0.5 | +125 | 43% | 56% | +13.3% |
Model lean · stale line
Uzbekistan (1X2), model edge +14.2%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Uzbekistan @ +400 (draftkings), edge 13.4pp · settled lost for -1.00u · CLV -0.9pp.
totals under 2: model-priced edge +12.6% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals under 2.25: model-priced edge +18.1% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals under 2.5: model-priced edge +11.6% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
spreads away 0.5: model-priced edge +13.3% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 27, 6:49 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 2 can push (P 27%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.
Show score grid
DR Congo
Uzbekistan
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