Group L6/6 played
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | won, drew, won | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | lost, won, won | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | won, drew, lost | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | lost, lost, lost | 0 | -4 | 0 |
The Call
What the model says
Panama win 7 percent, draw 14 percent, Croatia win 78 percent.
predicted score 0-2
published consensus — logged Jun 23, 6:53 PM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 0–1 (Croatia win) · the logged call had it at 78% · Brier 0.072 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): Croatia, low score; Panama's set pieces are the live tail.
Stakes
The table as it stands
After 6 matches in Group L: Panama 4th on 0 pts (0-0-3, -4 GD), Croatia 2nd on 6 pts (2-0-1, 0 GD). England lead the group on 7 pts; Croatia hold a top-two spot; Panama 6 pts back of the cutline.
Sweat Factor
How the heat stacks up
Actual · as of 2026-07-20 08:58 ET
~72°F · moderate humidity (50% RH) · WBGT 71.0°F
Mild
Comfortable conditions — heat is a non-factor for both sides.
Panama
-16.2°F vs home
Croatia
-3.6°F vs home
The Read
Tactical preview
Group L, MD2 | Tue June 23 — 7:00 PM ET (Fox) | BMO Field, Toronto
Croatia's ball-loving veterans against Panama's drilled 5-4-1 — a patience examination Modrić has passed for two decades. Panama's compact central trio and set-piece menace (their classic scoring route) give them a real puncher's chance, especially if Godoy and Carrasquilla are fit to anchor and create respectively. Croatia's block-breaking tools are specific: Vušković and Gvardiol's line-splitting passes, Kramarić dropping as a false-ish 10, Baturina's creativity if Dalić wants more incision. The Vatreni's tournament-craft (rest defense, foul management, tempo control) is precisely the skillset that strangles upset scripts.
Key Duel
Luka Modrić vs Panama's central three — 40 years old, still the man your block must account for every second.
Watch For
Carrasquilla's fitness and set-piece deliveries. Budimir–Kramarić connection vs a back five. Waterman's isolated shifts.
Shapes & Selection
PAN 5-4-1; CRO 4-2-3-1/5-3-2. (Refresh.)
Margin Notes
Panama return seven players from their 2018 squad. Modrić vs Godoy is a combined 75 years of central midfield.
The Wire
What's being reported
Auto-gathered 2026-06-23 · every claim carries its source · relayed as reporting, not verified by the hub — click through before it bears weight.
(Group L — 7:00 PM ET, BMO Field, Toronto)
- Sports Mole's predicted XIs — Panama (4-4-2): Mosquera; Ramos, Cordoba, Andrade; Murillo, Harvey, Barcenas, Blackman; Martinez, Waterman, Rodriguez. Croatia (4-3-3): Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic, Pasalic; Perisic, Musa, Kramaric. (source: https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/panama/world-cup-2026/team-news/panama-vs-croatia-injury-suspension-list-predicted-xis_599789.html)
- Sports Mole's article raises the question of a potential Carlos Harvey ban for Panama heading into this fixture. (source: https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/panama/world-cup-2026/team-news/panama-vs-croatia-injury-suspension-list-predicted-xis_599789.html)
- No players are currently reported injured or suspended for either Panama or Croatia per the tournament-wide injury tracker. (source: https://www.sportsgambler.com/injuries/football/fifa-world-cup/)
- Croatia head coach Zlatko Dalic is yet to confirm his starting XI, with no injury or suspension data currently available for the Vatreni. (source: https://www.goal.com/en/news/panama-croatia-world-cup-preview/blt39aad5317bdcdba7)
- ⚠️ Note: Sports Mole specifically flags "Carlos Harvey ban?" as a question for Panama's predicted XI — no further detail was available in the retrieved snippet to confirm whether the ban was confirmed or merely a yellow-card accumulation risk. No verifiable confirmation found in retrieved sources.
The Market
Odds & best bet
model projection: 3.06 total goals · over 1.5 81% · over 2.5 59% · over 3.5 37%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panama | +700 | 12% | 7% | -4.9% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +360 | 21% | 14% | -6.4% |
| 1X2 | Croatia | -233 | 67% | 78% | +11.4% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | -139 | 56% | 59% | +3.3% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | +117 | 44% | 41% | -3.3% |
| Total goals | Over 2.75 | -108 | 49% | 59% | +9.6% |
| Total goals | Under 2.75 | -112 | 51% | 41% | -9.6% |
| Total goals | Over 3 | +113 | 45% | 47% | +2.6% |
| Total goals | Under 3 | -139 | 55% | 53% | -2.6% |
| Asian handicap | Panama +1.5 | -138 | 56% | 43% | -12.3% |
| Asian handicap | Croatia -1.5 | +115 | 44% | 57% | +12.3% |
Model lean · stale line
Croatia (1X2), model edge +11.4%
the model likes this, but the line is over 12h old (the book hasn't reposted), so it is not recorded until the price refreshes — an intra-day run logs it once it does.
Logged pick: Over 2.5 @ -127 (betonlineag), edge 5.3pp · settled lost for -1.00u · CLV +1.1pp.
Logged pick: Croatia @ -204 (draftkings), edge 14.1pp · settled won for +0.49u · CLV +2.7pp.
totals over 2.75: model-priced edge +9.6% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
spreads away -1.5: model-priced edge +12.3% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 23, 6:53 PM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 3 can push (P 22%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.
Markets to watch (pre-baked): under 2.5; Croatia win to nil.
Show score grid
Panama
Croatia
Go Deeper