Group L6/6 played
| Position | Team | Form | GF | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | won, drew, won | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | lost, won, won | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | won, drew, lost | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | lost, lost, lost | 0 | -4 | 0 |
The Call
What the model says
Croatia win 78 percent, draw 16 percent, Ghana win 7 percent.
predicted score 2-0
published consensus — logged Jun 27, 11:54 AM ET, pre-kickoff
Graded: final 2–1 (Croatia win) · the logged call had it at 78% · Brier 0.079 (0 best · 0.667 coin-flip · 2 worst)
Pre-baked lean (June 11): Croatia, with Ghana's counters the live tail; under-ish.
Stakes
The table as it stands
After 6 matches in Group L: Croatia 2nd on 6 pts (2-0-1, 0 GD), Ghana 3rd on 4 pts (1-1-1, 0 GD). England lead the group on 7 pts; Croatia hold a top-two spot; Ghana 2 pts back of the cutline — the best eight third-placed teams also advance.
Sweat Factor
How the heat stacks up
Actual · as of 2026-07-20 08:58 ET
~74°F · humid (78% RH) · WBGT 78.6°F
Moderate
Warm out; Croatia are +4°F outside their comfort zone while Ghana are the better-acclimated side.
Croatia
+4.0°F vs home
Ghana
-5.8°F vs home
The Read
Tactical preview
Croatia's tempo-control veterans against Ghana's transition gamble — likely with second place at stake for one and third-place math for the other. Modrić and Kovačić will own the ball; Ghana's Queiroz-block concedes that by design and bets everything on Semenyo and Fatawu breaking at Croatia's older legs in open field. That bet is more live here than against England: Croatia's rest defense relies on positioning over recovery pace, and Ghana finally have the athletes to test it.
Key Duel
Antoine Semenyo vs Joško Gvardiol — the one matchup where Ghana hold the physical edge.
Watch For
Partey vs Modrić, 70 combined years of midfield; Vušković's duel diet; Croatian tournament-management dark arts.
Margin Notes
Croatia have made the final or semis in three of the last four major tournaments they've entered (verify count). Ayew's six relegations vs Modrić's six Champions Leagues is the cruelest stat pairing of the round.
Selection notes were pre-baked June 11 and are verified day-of in the edition, not here — anything marked “verify” must be confirmed before it is load-bearing.
The Market
Odds & best bet
model projection: 2.70 total goals · over 1.5 75% · over 2.5 51% · over 3.5 29%
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Croatia | -110 | 51% | 78% | +27.1% |
| 1X2 | Draw | +210 | 31% | 16% | -15.5% |
| 1X2 | Ghana | +425 | 18% | 7% | -11.7% |
| Total goals | Over 2 | -125 | 53% | 67% | +13.8% |
| Total goals | Under 2 | +105 | 47% | 33% | -13.8% |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | +154 | 38% | 51% | +12.7% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | -182 | 62% | 49% | -12.7% |
| Asian handicap | Croatia -0.5 | -112 | 51% | 77% | +26.1% |
| Asian handicap | Ghana +0.5 | -105 | 49% | 23% | -26.1% |
NO BET — no edge clears the 4% recording bar (a normal, expected result).
Logged pick: Over 2.25 @ +102 (bovada), edge 5.3pp · settled won for +1.02u.
h2h home: edge +27.1% implausibly large — verify odds freshness and team news before trusting
totals over 2: model-priced edge +13.8% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
totals over 2.5: model-priced edge +12.7% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
spreads home -0.5: model-priced edge +26.1% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jun 27, 11:54 AM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 5 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · O/U 2 can push (P 25%) — probabilities and edge are per unit at risk; a push refunds the stake.
Show score grid
Croatia
Ghana
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