Who goes through
England to advance · 87%
England 87%DR Congo 13%
most likely 90′ score 1–0 · ~22% reach extra time · ~16% reach a shootout
advance model: 90′ consensus (Elo+Futi) routed through extra time + a coin-flip shootout · neutral venue
How they got here
Round of 32 · England vs DR Congo.
How the heat stacks up
Tactical preview
Round of 32 | M80 | 2026-07-01 · 12:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta | TV TBD
England arrive in Atlanta having built their entire tournament structure around a single axis: Harry Kane dropping deep to receive, hold, and lay off, while a ring of runners — Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers, and width-giving forwards — exploit the space his movement creates. Thomas Tuchel's selection logic has been explicit about this; players who run into those channels took precedence over the more possession-static profiles he left at home. The machinery, then, is coherent, if not always spectacular. John Stones and Marc Guéhi will circulate the ball out from the back, with Nico O'Reilly and Reece James inverting into the pockets to help England build through a compact midfield press rather than around it. Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson form the double pivot that allows all of this movement to happen without the shape collapsing.
DR Congo under Sébastien Desabre will, as their tactical profile suggests, arrive in some variant of a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-1-1 that compresses into a 4-1-4-1 or even a 5-3-2 when defending. Samuel Moutoussamy is the linchpin of that defensive compactness, capable of dropping in front of or between the centre-halves to form an extra line of obstruction. The Leopards' first problem in this specific game is not defensive organisation — they can be tidy enough — but the straightforward arithmetic of needing to score against an England side that will carry a significant portion of the ball. Yoane Wissa and Cédric Bakambu are the primary mechanisms for doing that, and neither arrives in ideal condition: Wissa has endured a difficult first year at Newcastle, and Bakambu's age is a legitimate question mark.
The deeper tension for DR Congo is structural: Desabre's shape debate — whether to give Ngal'ayel Mukau a midfield berth for extra solidity or release Nathanaël Mbuku for extra width — will be shaped by how aggressively he judges England can be pressed. A more attacking shape invites England's pivot to pass through open lanes; a more conservative one risks leaving Wissa isolated, which is precisely the circumstance in which his current form looks most fragile. England will win if their possession cycle is patient enough to pin the Leopards deep and find Kane eventually. DR Congo will win if they can spring something vertical in the brief moments England's full backs invert and leave space in behind — moments that do exist in this system, but which Stones and Guéhi are specifically equipped to manage.
The tie's decisive battle is likely to play out between Kane and Chancel Mbemba, DR Congo's captain and most capped player. Mbemba arrives with 107 caps and a reading of the game that is far more nuanced than his raw physical presence might suggest. Kane, with 78 England goals to his name and a 61-goal club season at Bayern Munich just concluded, is the most dangerous drop-and-link forward operating in world football, and Mbemba will be responsible for following him into the pockets that Kane favours without vacating the central channel. The problem for Mbemba is that Kane's movement is designed precisely to make that choice uncomfortable: track him too closely and the runners Tuchel has selected will run through the gaps; hold the line and Kane has the technical quality to receive, turn, and threaten from deep. If Mbemba can restrict Kane to peripheral touches and neutralise his aerial presence at set pieces, DR Congo give themselves a viable path to extra time. If Kane finds his rhythm, the margin could be wider than the model's most likely 1-0 scoreline suggests.
- Harry Kane, whose ability to drop and connect is the engine of everything England want to do — his movement off the ball is as important to track as what he does with it.
- Nico O'Reilly's positional flexibility; depending on where Desabre sets his defensive line, O'Reilly could appear as a left back, a pivot, or a higher pocket player within the same game.
- Yoane Wissa, who needs to find form quickly; the Leopards have no obvious alternative source of goals if he is peripheral.
- Noah Sadiki's box-to-box work in midfield — his ability to carry and press at 21 made him a consistent performer alongside Granit Xhaka at club level and could be DR Congo's best hope of disrupting England's double pivot.
- The Desabre formation question: whether Ngal'ayel Mukau starts in a midfield three or Nathanaël Mbuku gets the nod in a wider forward role will tell you a great deal about how Desabre reads his own team's chances of holding possession.
Projected lineups and selection questions are not yet verified — refresh from current team news before kickoff. (verify before use)
- DR Congo are making only their second World Cup appearance; their first was in 1974, when they went out in the group stage and the tournament has not featured them since.
- England's record goalscorer and captain are the same man: Kane, currently on 78 goals in the shirt.
- Jordan Pickford's family name was originally Pigford, changed by his father Lee by deed poll after suffering bullying at school.
- Michel Nkuka, the Congolese superfan known for his impression of Patrice Lumumba at AFCON, has been named to DR Congo's official World Cup delegation and will presumably be present in Atlanta.
- Afimico Pululu, who scored 15 goals for Jagiellonia Białystok in the Polish Ekstraklasa, was left out of Desabre's squad — a selection that has generated notable frustration among DR Congo supporters.
Selection notes were pre-baked June 11 and are verified day-of in the edition, not here — anything marked “verify” must be confirmed before it is load-bearing.
Odds & best bet
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Ours | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | +102 | 47% | 38% | -8.9% |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | -123 | 53% | 62% | +8.9% |
| Asian handicap | England -1.5 | -112 | 51% | 50% | -1.2% |
| Asian handicap | DR Congo +1.5 | -106 | 49% | 50% | +1.2% |
| To qualify | England | — | 85% | 87% | +1.9% |
| To qualify | DR Congo | — | 15% | 13% | -1.9% |
NO BET — no edge clears the 4% recording bar (a normal, expected result).
totals under 2.5: model-priced edge +8.9% exceeds the 8% cap for uncorroborated markets (priced from our own score matrix, no consensus cross-check) — not recorded
market snapshot Jul 1, 1:01 AM ET · DraftKings where quoted, else best of 6 US books, de-vigged multiplicatively · totals / handicap / BTTS are model-priced from the score matrix — the Opta overlay covers W/D/L only, and with no independent consensus check they clear a stricter 8% edge ceiling vs 15% for 1X2 · totals / handicap / BTTS settle on 90 minutes (regulation) — extra-time goals don't count toward them · advance edge derived from the 90' market (no quoted 'to qualify' line) — a model-vs-market read, not a recorded bet.