Forty matches in and the group stage is approaching its midpoint, with Monday offering a look at two groups where the table-toppers are still sorting themselves out. The headline act arrives at 1 p.m. ET when Argentina face Austria in a Group J meeting of two sides with identical records after one game — three points apiece, separated only by goal difference. The consensus gives Argentina a 72-9 edge in win probability, and the recorded spread pick reflects confidence in a margin, but Austria arrived here having won their opener as well, and a team with something to protect can make that number uncomfortable. Later in the evening, Group I splits across two simultaneous windows: France against Iraq at 5 p.m. carries a 90-2 consensus split that leaves almost nothing to discuss in terms of outcome uncertainty, while Norway against Senegal at 8 p.m. is the genuinely open match of the day — 47-26-28, which is about as flat a three-way split as you will see. On the third-place cutline, Ecuador sit eighth on one point with a goal difference of minus-one, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are one place below them on the same points but minus-three.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data