Day 4 brings Groups E and F into the picture for the first time, with four openers spread across a long Sunday that begins at 1:00 PM ET and runs past midnight. Germany against Curaçao is the least suspenseful proposition on the card — the consensus gives the Europeans a 91 percent chance of winning, which leaves very little to discuss beyond the margin. The more interesting football arrives at 4:00 PM, when the Netherlands face Japan in a game the models genuinely cannot separate: 45 percent Dutch, 30 percent Japanese, 25 percent draw. That is close enough to warrant saying plainly that the outcome is uncertain, and a paper play on the over 2.5 at 2.00 has been logged with a stated edge of 5.5 percentage points. The evening pair finishes Group E's opening night, with Ecuador considered a clear favorite at 61 percent over Côte d'Ivoire at 7:00 PM — a pick on the over 1.75 at 1.85 sits on paper there, edge 11.7pp — before Sweden and Tunisia, separated by just 20 percentage points in the consensus, close things out on FS1, with the over 2 at 1.65 also recorded, edge 7.5pp.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data