Friday, July 3 · 3 knockout matches
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 23 days, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed. Friday offers no football — a rare pause that the tournament builds in deliberately, giving the field a moment to breathe before the round of 32 begins. It is a day for tallying what the groups produced: the surprises that held up, the favorites that wobbled, the margins that separated progression from an early flight home. The numbers will be picked over at length between now and the weekend, but the essential fact is simple enough — 72 games, and the competition is only just starting to mean something permanent. Results from here cannot be undone by a later match. Every error will last.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
2:00 PM ET
AustraliavEgypt▸ model: Australia to advance 56%
6:00 PM ET
ArgentinavCape Verde▸ model: Argentina to advance 95%
9:30 PM ET
ColombiavGhana▸ model: Colombia to advance 92%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final