Day 11 brings the halfway point of the group stage, and both Groups G and H arrive at matchday 2 with their tables entirely level — four teams on one point apiece in each, every goal difference at zero. The standings offer no guidance whatsoever, which makes the afternoon's action genuinely consequential and, in a couple of cases, genuinely hard to read.
Spain against Saudi Arabia kicks off at noon on Fox and is about as lopsided as the model gets, with Spain given a 92 percent chance of winning — though the recorded lean is on the under 3 at 2.28, suggesting the expected margin of victory may be comfortable without being a rout. Belgium and Iran at 3 PM on FS1 is considerably murkier: Belgium hold a 63 percent probability but Iran sit at 16, a gap that leaves real room for surprise. The third-place cutline currently sits at 1 point on goal difference minus-one, meaning a draw today does almost as much work as a win for several of these sides. Uruguay and Cape Verde meet at 6 PM, and New Zealand face Egypt at 9 PM to close out a full Sunday card on FS1.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data