Thursday, July 16 · no matches today
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 35 days, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed. Thursday offers no football — a deliberate pause before the tournament shifts register entirely, trading the cumulative arithmetic of points and goal difference for the blunter logic of a single game. It is, in its quiet way, a useful moment: time for the dust to settle on some genuinely surprising group outcomes, for travel arrangements to be made, and for the kind of collective breath-holding that precedes elimination football. The round of 32 begins Friday, and from here every team that loses goes home. There will be no second chances, no safety nets, no comfort in a draw. Thirty-two teams remain. Thirty-one of them will eventually lose.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
- No matches on this editorial date.
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Projected championSpain
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 56.1% |
| Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 43.9% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.