WC26 Daily Hub · Knockout Stage · Semi-final

The 26 Standings

Vol. I — No. 34 Tuesday, July 14, 2026 One edition per ET date

29 of 32 knockout matches played

Knockout stageThe bracket is live →Round of 32 through the Final · projected winners and advance odds, updated as results land
Today

Tuesday, July 14 · 1 knockout match

The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 33 days, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed. Tuesday offers no football — a rare pause in a tournament that has barely stopped for breath since it opened — which makes it a reasonable moment to take stock before the round of 32 begins. The teams that survived did so across a schedule stretched over more cities and time zones than any World Cup before this one, and the results were not always what the models or the pundits anticipated. Some favourites came through looking composed; others arrived at the knockout stage with questions still unanswered. The next match will clarify things considerably, as elimination tends to do.

— the morning line, generated from the day's data

  • Full time

    France0–2Spain

    M101 · Semi-final · TV TBD · AT&T Stadium, Arlington · preview →

R32 → Final

The Bracket

A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.

Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.

  1. Round of 32

  2. Round of 16

  3. Quarter-finals

  4. Semi-finals

  5. Final

Third-place play-off

The two semi-final losers

Projected championArgentina

Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.

  1. Round of 32

  2. Round of 16

  3. Quarter-finals

  4. Semi-finals

  5. Final

Third-place play-off

The two semi-final losers

Every path, priced

The Title Race

Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.

TeamQFSFFinalChampion
Spain✓✓✓54.3%
Argentina✓✓61%30.6%
England✓✓39%15.1%

✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.