Monday, July 13 · no matches today
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the tables are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is set — which means Monday offers something the previous four weeks have not: a day with nothing on the schedule and no result to chase. That stillness is its own kind of news. Thirty-two teams arrived for the tournament; the ones still standing now know exactly who they face and, more pressingly, who among their rivals survived to join them in the draw. The work of the group stage — the points traded, the goal differences nursed, the late equalizers that reshuffled entire sections of the bracket — is finished. What follows is single-elimination football, where the margin for error disappears entirely. Tuesday will bring the first matches of the round of 32. For now, a pause.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
- No matches on this editorial date.
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | 61% | 32.7% |
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | 59% | 32.2% |
| France | ✓ | ✓ | 41% | 18.6% |
| England | ✓ | ✓ | 39% | 16.5% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.