Thursday, July 2 · 3 knockout matches
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across the three weeks since the tournament opened, and the field of 48 has been trimmed to the 32 sides who will contest the round of 32 beginning Friday. Thursday is, in the bluntest sense, a pause — no kick-offs, no scoreboards turning over, no last-minute arithmetic to follow. It is the kind of day the World Cup occasionally allows itself: a moment to absorb what has already happened before the knockout rounds impose their own, starker logic. From Friday, every result is final and every elimination is immediate. The group stage rewarded accumulation; what follows rewards survival. There is nothing to watch today, which is perhaps the point.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
3:00 PM ET
SpainvAustria▸ model: Spain to advance 86%
7:00 PM ET
PortugalvCroatia▸ model: Portugal to advance 71%
11:00 PM ET
SwitzerlandvAlgeria▸ model: Switzerland to advance 66%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final