Wednesday, July 15 · 1 knockout match
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 34 days, and the field of 48 has been reduced to whatever the knockout bracket now holds — the arithmetic of goal differences and late-night results having done its quiet, occasionally brutal work. Wednesday offers no football, which is either a mercy or a mild cruelty depending on how the last few weeks have treated you. The day belongs to travel, preparation, and the particular anxiety of teams who know exactly what is coming and when. There is nothing to predict today, no probabilities to weigh, no fixtures to frame. The group stage, with all its drama and arithmetic, is simply over.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
3:00 PM ET
EnglandvArgentina▸ model: Argentina to advance 61%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 54.3% |
| Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | 61% | 30.6% |
| England | ✓ | ✓ | 39% | 15.1% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.