Six days in and a third of the group stage already settled into the record books, Tuesday opens with Group I and Group J each playing their full first-matchday card — four matches, one group winner almost certainly decided by midnight.
France against Senegal is the day's most genuinely competitive fixture on paper, with a 22 percent draw probability suggesting this is no foregone conclusion despite France being installed as 65-35 favorites once the draw is removed. Iraq and Norway follow in the same group, where the models are considerably less equivocal: Norway at 78 percent leaves Iraq little statistical runway. Prime time belongs to Argentina and Algeria in Group J, where a recorded paper play on Argentina sits at 1.44 with a stated edge of 13 points — a meaningful number if it holds. Austria and Jordan close things out past midnight on FS1. On the third-place cutline, eighth place is currently Norway at zero points, separated from ninth-place Portugal only on goal difference, so every margin today counts toward that race.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data