Sunday, July 19 · 1 knockout match
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed — which means Sunday offers something the previous five and a half weeks have not: a full day with nothing to resolve. No late equalisers to chase, no goal-difference arithmetic to run at midnight. For the first time since the tournament opened, the World Cup simply pauses and breathes.
It is, in its way, a useful moment. The teams that survived have a day to collect themselves before the round of 32 begins; everyone else has the leisure of the postmortem. The group stage at this scale — 72 matches across nearly six weeks — has a way of making the knockout rounds feel almost abrupt when they arrive. They arrive tomorrow.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
3:00 PM ET
SpainvArgentina▸ model: Spain to advance 56%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Projected championSpain
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 56.1% |
| Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 43.9% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.