Friday, July 10 · 1 knockout match
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 30 days, the standings are settled, and the tournament now pauses before the knockout rounds begin. It is the kind of day that exists between things — too late for recriminations about what went wrong in the groups, too early for the focused dread that accompanies a single-elimination bracket. Fans of the 32 teams that arrived with ambitions have had time enough to either book onward travel or cancel it. What comes next will be played on different terms entirely, where a bad hour cannot be smoothed out by a third game. The round of 32 begins soon, and the margin for the sort of result that can be explained away shrinks to nothing.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
3:00 PM ET
SpainvBelgium▸ model: Spain to advance 78%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | ✓ | 81% | 54% | 30.2% |
| Spain | ✓ | 78% | 46% | 26.7% |
| France | ✓ | ✓ | 47% | 23.5% |
| England | ✓ | 74% | 34% | 15.0% |
| Belgium | ✓ | 22% | 6% | 2.0% |
| Switzerland | ✓ | 19% | 6% | 1.4% |
| Norway | ✓ | 26% | 6% | 1.3% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.