WC26 Daily Hub · Knockout Stage · Round of 16

The 26 Standings

21 of 32 knockout matches played

Knockout stageThe bracket is live →Round of 32 through the Final · projected winners and advance odds, updated as results land
Today

Monday, July 6 · 2 knockout matches

The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are final, and 32 teams have been reduced to 16 — though for roughly half of those 16, the margin between progress and elimination was uncomfortable enough to suggest the knockout rounds will not be kind to anyone who plays cautiously. Monday is a rest day in the strictest sense: no fixtures, no whistles, nothing to parse in real time. What it offers instead is the chance to look squarely at what the group stage produced before the round of 16 begins and the tournament's whole character changes. Single-elimination football has a way of making everything that came before it feel like prologue. Starting Tuesday, there are no second chances, no goal-difference arithmetic to hide behind, and no draws that feel like acceptable outcomes. The bracket is set.

— the morning line, generated from the day's data

  • Full time

    Portugal0–1Spain

    M93 · Round of 16 · TV TBD · AT&T Stadium, Arlington · preview →

  • 8:00 PM ET

    United StatesvBelgium

    M94 · Round of 16 · TV TBD · Lumen Field, Seattle · preview →

    ▸ model: Belgium to advance 72%

R32 → Final

The Bracket

A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.

Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.

Every path, priced

The Title Race

Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.

TeamQFSFFinalChampion
Spain81%52%31.1%
Argentina88%65%43%24.7%
France68%32%16.4%
England74%36%16.3%
Colombia65%23%11%4.0%
Morocco32%10%3.4%
Belgium72%16%6%1.9%
Norway26%7%1.5%
Switzerland35%9%3%0.7%
United States28%3%1%0.1%
Egypt12%3%1%0.1%

✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.