Sunday, July 12 · no matches today
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the table is set, and the World Cup now belongs entirely to the knockout rounds — though none of those matches fall on today's card. It is, in other words, a day for tallying what the past month produced: the upsets that rewrote expectations, the narrow margins that sent some nations home and others through, and the quieter arithmetic of goal difference that settled more than a few fates. For readers catching their breath before the single-elimination pressure resumes, today offers a moment of perspective rather than result. The bracket is fixed, the groups are history, and whatever happens next will be decided without a safety net. Consider this the pause between movements — brief, necessary, and not entirely unwelcome.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
- No matches on this editorial date.
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | 61% | 32.7% |
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | 59% | 32.2% |
| France | ✓ | ✓ | 41% | 18.6% |
| England | ✓ | ✓ | 39% | 16.5% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.