Wednesday, July 8 · no matches today
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the table is set, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is fixed — which means Wednesday offers something increasingly rare at a World Cup: a day with nothing to resolve and no result to chase. That is not a complaint. After four weeks of near-continuous football across three countries, a pause before the round of sixteen feels less like a gap in the schedule and more like a moment to take stock of what the group stage actually produced before the serious, unforgiving business of single-elimination begins. From here, every team that loses goes home. The margin for the kind of recovery that rescued sides in the group stage no longer exists. Thursday's first knockout fixtures will arrive soon enough.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
- No matches on this editorial date.
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | ✓ | 81% | 54% | 30.9% |
| Spain | ✓ | 78% | 50% | 28.8% |
| France | ✓ | 68% | 32% | 16.0% |
| England | ✓ | 74% | 34% | 15.6% |
| Morocco | ✓ | 32% | 10% | 3.4% |
| Belgium | ✓ | 22% | 8% | 2.5% |
| Switzerland | ✓ | 19% | 6% | 1.5% |
| Norway | ✓ | 26% | 6% | 1.4% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.