Saturday, July 4 · 2 knockout matches
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed. Saturday offers no football — only the particular tension of a rest day when sixteen teams are still alive and have nothing to do but wait and think. The World Cup pauses here for breath before the round of sixteen begins, and the gap between the group stage's relentless rhythm and the sudden-death logic that follows is worth sitting with for a moment. From here, every team that loses goes home. There are no more dropped points to recover from, no more tiebreaker arithmetic to consult. The tournament has been patient and cumulative for three weeks; it is about to become something else entirely.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
1:00 PM ET
Winner M73vWinner M755:00 PM ET
Winner M74vWinner M77
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final