Tuesday, June 30 · 3 knockout matches
The group stage is over. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are settled, and the World Cup now belongs entirely to the knockout rounds. Tuesday offers no football — a pause that arrives less as rest than as reckoning, a moment for the 32 nations still involved to take stock and for the eight already eliminated to begin the longer journey home. The tournament has been running for twenty days, long enough to have produced its share of upsets, narrow escapes, and groups that went to the wire, and short enough that the decisive matches are still mostly ahead. From here the bracket is unforgiving: one loss and you are done. Wednesday will bring the first round of sixteen fixtures back into view, and the serious arithmetic of elimination football begins in earnest.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
1:00 PM ET
Côte d'IvoirevNorway▸ model: Norway to advance 70%
5:00 PM ET
FrancevSweden▸ model: France to advance 90%
9:00 PM ET
MexicovEcuador▸ model: Mexico to advance 52%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final