Thursday, July 9 · 1 knockout match
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are settled, and the World Cup now belongs entirely to the knockout rounds. Thursday offers no football — a pause that, after four weeks of near-continuous matches across three countries, feels less like a rest day and more like the tournament drawing a breath before the serious arithmetic begins. Sixteen teams remain, with round-of-sixteen fixtures set to resume imminently. The groups produced their share of surprises and their share of confirmation that the pre-tournament order mostly held, though the margins between progress and elimination were, in several cases, uncomfortably thin. For now there is nothing to do but wait, consult the bracket, and argue about what the group stage means for what comes next.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
4:00 PM ET
FrancevMorocco▸ model: France to advance 68%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | ✓ | 81% | 54% | 30.9% |
| Spain | ✓ | 78% | 50% | 28.8% |
| France | ✓ | 68% | 32% | 16.0% |
| England | ✓ | 74% | 34% | 15.6% |
| Morocco | ✓ | 32% | 10% | 3.4% |
| Belgium | ✓ | 22% | 8% | 2.5% |
| Switzerland | ✓ | 19% | 6% | 1.5% |
| Norway | ✓ | 26% | 6% | 1.4% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.