Monday, July 20 · no matches today
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed. After nearly six weeks of football spread across three countries, the tournament pauses for a day before the round of 32 begins in earnest — a moment to take stock rather than preview the next result.
What the group stage produced was a competition with fewer certainties than the seedings implied. Some fancied sides stumbled through, others were eliminated earlier than expected, and the margins that separated teams in several groups were fine enough to make the final day fixtures genuinely anxious occasions. The knockout rounds offer no such complexity: one match, one result, no second chances. The schedule resumes tomorrow, and the arithmetic gets considerably simpler from here.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
- No matches on this editorial date.
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
ChampionsSpain
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Projected championSpain
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 100.0% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.