Tuesday, July 7 · 2 knockout matches
Seventy-two matches across the group stage, and the last of them is done. Every nation now knows its fate — which sixteen advance, which thirty-two go home, and in what order the survivors will meet in the round of sixteen beginning later this week. The numbers have been crunched, the goal differences tallied, the tiebreakers applied with varying degrees of controversy. What the group stage rarely provides is tidy conclusions, and this edition has been no different: there were results that surprised, margins that flattered, and a handful of sides that looked rather better on paper than they did on grass. Today is a pause between the noise of the groups and the sharper, more final arithmetic of the knockouts — a day for reading the bracket carefully, because from here a single loss ends everything.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
Full time
Argentina3–2EgyptFull time
Switzerland0–0 pensColombia
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | ✓ | 81% | 54% | 30.9% |
| Spain | ✓ | 78% | 50% | 28.8% |
| France | ✓ | 68% | 32% | 16.0% |
| England | ✓ | 74% | 34% | 15.6% |
| Morocco | ✓ | 32% | 10% | 3.4% |
| Belgium | ✓ | 22% | 8% | 2.5% |
| Switzerland | ✓ | 19% | 6% | 1.5% |
| Norway | ✓ | 26% | 6% | 1.4% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.