Overnight — Saturday, June 27
- L5Panama 0–2 England correct call logged 90% on the result · Brier 0.018
- L6Croatia 2–1 Ghana correct call logged 78% on the result · Brier 0.079
- K5Colombia 0–0 Portugal missed logged 26% on the result · Brier 0.826
- K6DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan correct call logged 36% on the result · Brier 0.611
- J5Jordan 1–3 Argentina correct call logged 93% on the result · Brier 0.009
- J6Algeria 3–3 Austria missed logged 25% on the result · Brier 0.846
Sunday, June 28 · 1 knockout match
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 18 days, the standings are settled, and the bracket for the knockout rounds is now fixed. What began with 48 teams in a dozen cities has been whittled down to the 32 who advance, and the rest have already begun the long journey home. There is a certain stillness to a day like this — no kick-offs, no late equalisers to scramble the tables — just the arithmetic of what happened sitting undisturbed on the page. The round of 32 opens tomorrow, and with it the tournament becomes a different competition entirely: single elimination, no second chances, no comfort in a draw. For now, though, the day belongs to transit lounges and quiet reflection on what might have been.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
Full time
South Africa0–1Canada
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final