Monday, July 6 · 2 knockout matches
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the standings are final, and 32 teams have been reduced to 16 — though for roughly half of those 16, the margin between progress and elimination was uncomfortable enough to suggest the knockout rounds will not be kind to anyone who plays cautiously. Monday is a rest day in the strictest sense: no fixtures, no whistles, nothing to parse in real time. What it offers instead is the chance to look squarely at what the group stage produced before the round of 16 begins and the tournament's whole character changes. Single-elimination football has a way of making everything that came before it feel like prologue. Starting Tuesday, there are no second chances, no goal-difference arithmetic to hide behind, and no draws that feel like acceptable outcomes. The bracket is set.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
Full time
Portugal0–1Spain8:00 PM ET
United StatesvBelgium▸ model: Belgium to advance 72%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ✓ | 81% | 52% | 31.1% |
| Argentina | 88% | 65% | 43% | 24.7% |
| France | ✓ | 68% | 32% | 16.4% |
| England | ✓ | 74% | 36% | 16.3% |
| Colombia | 65% | 23% | 11% | 4.0% |
| Morocco | ✓ | 32% | 10% | 3.4% |
| Belgium | 72% | 16% | 6% | 1.9% |
| Norway | ✓ | 26% | 7% | 1.5% |
| Switzerland | 35% | 9% | 3% | 0.7% |
| United States | 28% | 3% | 1% | 0.1% |
| Egypt | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0.1% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.