Wednesday, July 1 · 3 knockout matches
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across 21 days, the standings are settled, and the World Cup now belongs entirely to the knockout rounds. There is a certain stillness to a Wednesday with no fixtures after the relentless churn of the past three weeks — a moment to take stock before the tournament reshapes itself into the single-elimination logic that turns draws into exits and favored sides into cautionary tales. The round of 32 begins Thursday, and from here every result is final in the most literal sense. No second chances, no goal-difference arithmetic to hide behind. Wednesday, then, is a rare pause: the last quiet day until a champion is eventually found.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
12:00 PM ET
EnglandvDR Congo▸ model: England to advance 87%
4:00 PM ET
BelgiumvSenegal▸ model: Belgium to advance 68%
8:00 PM ET
United StatesvBosnia and Herzegovina▸ model: United States to advance 80%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final