Saturday, July 18 · 1 knockout match
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played, the table arithmetic is settled, and the World Cup now belongs entirely to the knockout rounds. Saturday offers no football — a pause that is less a rest day than a reckoning, the moment between the chaos of six weeks of group play and whatever orderly brutality the last-16 bracket is about to impose. Thirty-two teams arrived with ambitions of various sizes; a good number of them are already home, or making arrangements to be. The ones still here have earned the right to a day of quiet preparation before single-elimination logic takes over and removes all margin for error. Sunday will bring matches again. For now, the competition simply breathes.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
5:00 PM ET
FrancevEngland▸ model: France to advance 58%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Projected championSpain
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
The Title Race
Chance of reaching each round, propagated exactly through the bracket from the advance model (extra time, shootouts and the host-venue bonus included) — no simulation noise, updated as results land.
| Team | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 56.1% |
| Argentina | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 43.9% |
✓ = already there. Model probabilities, not odds — see each match page for the market view.