Nine days in, 28 matches down, and Friday delivers a slate that ranges from a near-certainty to a pair of games where the models cannot quite make up their minds. Brazil hosting Haiti at 8:30 PM is the closest thing to a formality the group stage offers — a 96% consensus leaves almost no room for drama, and the recorded play reflects it, backing the obvious side at 1.11. The intrigue lies elsewhere.
United States against Australia at 3:00 PM is genuinely tight: 38-27-35 in the consensus, two sides separated by a single goal-difference point after winning their openers, with the recorded play landing on under 2.5 goals at 1.98. Scotland and Morocco at 6:00 PM is lopsided the other way, Morocco the heavy favourite at 57% against a Scotland side that sits top of Group C despite the numbers. Türkiye and Paraguay close the night on FS1 at 11:00, both winless and both needing a result, with Türkiye holding a narrow edge in the model. On the third-place cutline, Ecuador and Panama are knotted on zero points and minus-one goal difference, meaning several teams playing today could move meaningfully in that race.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data