Monday, June 29 · 3 knockout matches
The group stage is done. All 72 matches have been played across the three host nations, and the bracket for the round of 32 is now fixed. After more than two weeks of results that occasionally defied expectation and frequently defied tidy narrative, the field has been reduced from 48 to 32 sides, and the knockout phase begins tomorrow. From here, every match is a final of sorts — lose, and the tournament is over, with no second chances and no points tally to soften the blow. Monday offers a rare pause in the schedule, a moment for the dust to settle before single-elimination football takes over entirely. The groups produced their share of surprises; the knockouts will produce their share of upsets. Today, at least, there is nothing to do but wait.
— the morning line, generated from the day's data
1:00 PM ET
BrazilvJapan▸ model: Brazil to advance 74%
4:30 PM ET
GermanyvParaguay▸ model: Germany to advance 75%
9:00 PM ET
NetherlandsvMorocco▸ model: Netherlands to advance 55%
The Bracket
A winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played. Switch to the model’s projected finish for the run of the whole bracket.
Real results only. Every group winner, runner-up and the eight best thirds (slotted by the FIFA Annex C logic) drop into their fixed slots; then a winner is highlighted and advances the moment its tie is played, with the loser struck out. The rounds beyond fill in as games finish — nothing here is projected.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Third-place play-off
The two semi-final losers
Projected championArgentina
Every remaining game simulated from the model's goal rates and run through the whole bracket — a full scenario, not a forecast of who qualifies.
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final