Two scorecards, kept honest. One grades the forecast — how good our probabilities were. The other grades the bets — paper picks taken only when our price beat the market. They measure different things and can disagree on the same match; that's the method working, not a contradiction.
The Calls0.509avg Brier
43 of 69 hit · beats the 0.667 coin-flip
How sharp the group-stage forecast was. Lower is better — 0 is perfect, 0.667 a coin flip.
Advance Calls0.2782-class Brier
26 of 32 right · beats the 0.5 coin-flip
Who we called to advance in the knockout, graded on the tie's result (extra time + penalties). Lower is better — 0.5 a coin flip.
The Bets+8.9unet · flat 1u
68–55 settled · CLV +0.2pp
Paper picks, recorded only when our price beats the market. CLV is how far the line moved our way by kickoff.
Shadow Book-2.8upaper · not staked
35–36 on paper
Bold calls where we disagree hard with the market — too risky to stake, tracked to see who's right.
Day by day
The Ledger
Each day's calls and bets, newest first. Open a day to see the detail.
Sun · July 191 advance call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.34
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain v Argentina | Spain 59% | Spain | correct call | 0.340 |
Sat · July 181 advance call · 0/1 hit · Brier 0.611 bet · +1.0u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v England | France 55% | England | missed | 0.610 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v England | England +0.5 | -104 | 6.3pp | won | +0.96 | -0.8pp |
Wed · July 151 advance call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.331 bet · -1.0u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v Argentina | Argentina 60% | Argentina | correct call | 0.325 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v Argentina | Under 2.5 | -175 | 7.9pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.0pp |
Tue · July 141 advance call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.26
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Spain | Spain 64% | Spain | correct call | 0.261 |
Sat · July 112 advance calls · 2/2 hit · Brier 0.112 bets · +1.2u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway v England | England 73% | England | correct call | 0.144 |
| Argentina v Switzerland | Argentina 80% | Argentina | correct call | 0.077 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina v Switzerland | Over 2 | -145 | 4.7pp | push | +0.00 | -0.7pp |
| Norway v England | Under 2.5 | +119 | 6.3pp | won | +1.19 | -1.5pp |
Fri · July 101 advance call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.101 bet · +0.0u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain v Belgium | Spain 78% | Spain | correct call | 0.100 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain v Belgium | Spain -1 | +104 | 7.8pp | push | +0.00 | +0.0pp |
Thu · July 91 advance call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.21
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Morocco | France 67% | France | correct call | 0.212 |
Tue · July 72 advance calls · 1/2 hit · Brier 0.431 bet · -1.0u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina v Egypt | Argentina 88% | Argentina | correct call | 0.028 |
| Switzerland v Colombia | Colombia 65% | Switzerland | missed | 0.842 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina v Egypt | Argentina -1.5 | +115 | 5.8pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
Mon · July 62 advance calls · 2/2 hit · Brier 0.163 bets · +2.9u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Spain | Spain 68% | Spain | correct call | 0.200 |
| United States v Belgium | Belgium 75% | Belgium | correct call | 0.130 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Spain | Spain -0.5 | -108 | 4.8pp | won | +0.93 | -0.3pp |
| Portugal v Spain | Under 2.5 | +112 | 4.0pp | won | +1.12 | +0.1pp |
| United States v Belgium | Over 2.5 | -123 | 5.4pp | won | +0.81 | -0.0pp |
Sun · July 52 advance calls · 1/2 hit · Brier 0.66
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil v Norway | Brazil 75% | Norway | missed | 1.139 |
| Mexico v England | England 70% | England | correct call | 0.177 |
Sat · July 42 advance calls · 2/2 hit · Brier 0.131 bet · +0.8u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay v France | France 83% | France | correct call | 0.056 |
| Canada v Morocco | Morocco 69% | Morocco | correct call | 0.196 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada v Morocco | Morocco -0.5 | -122 | 5.2pp | won | +0.82 | -0.0pp |
Fri · July 33 advance calls · 2/3 hit · Brier 0.213 bets · -3.0u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina v Cape Verde | Argentina 95% | Argentina | correct call | 0.004 |
| Colombia v Ghana | Colombia 92% | Colombia | correct call | 0.013 |
| Australia v Egypt | Australia 56% | Egypt | missed | 0.620 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina v Cape Verde | Under 3 | -116 | 6.4pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.5pp |
| Argentina v Cape Verde | Argentina -2 | -127 | 7.3pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
| Colombia v Ghana | Over 2.5 | +110 | 7.8pp | lost | -1.00 | +1.2pp |
Thu · July 23 advance calls · 3/3 hit · Brier 0.143 bets · +1.1u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Croatia | Portugal 71% | Portugal | correct call | 0.166 |
| Spain v Austria | Spain 86% | Spain | correct call | 0.037 |
| Switzerland v Algeria | Switzerland 66% | Switzerland | correct call | 0.226 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Croatia | Under 3 | -141 | 4.0pp | push | +0.00 | +0.7pp |
| Spain v Austria | Under 3 | -141 | 6.4pp | push | +0.00 | -0.8pp |
| Switzerland v Algeria | Switzerland -0.5 | +107 | 7.4pp | won | +1.07 | +2.0pp |
Wed · July 13 advance calls · 3/3 hit · Brier 0.113 bets · -1.2u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v DR Congo | England 87% | England | correct call | 0.032 |
| United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina | United States 80% | United States | correct call | 0.081 |
| Belgium v Senegal | Belgium 68% | Belgium | correct call | 0.206 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v DR Congo | Under 2.5 | -127 | 7.7pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
| United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Under 3 | -128 | 7.1pp | won | +0.78 | -0.3pp |
| United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bosnia and Herzegovina +1.5 | -111 | 4.9pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
Tue · June 303 advance calls · 3/3 hit · Brier 0.222 bets · -1.0u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Sweden | France 90% | France | correct call | 0.019 |
| Côte d'Ivoire v Norway | Norway 70% | Norway | correct call | 0.180 |
| Mexico v Ecuador | Mexico 52% | Mexico | correct call | 0.453 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico v Ecuador | Ecuador +0.5 | -139 | 6.8pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
| Mexico v Ecuador | Under 2 | -133 | 4.4pp | push | +0.00 | — |
Mon · June 293 advance calls · 1/3 hit · Brier 0.634 bets · +3.4u
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Paraguay | Germany 75% | Paraguay | missed | 1.139 |
| Netherlands v Morocco | Netherlands 55% | Morocco | missed | 0.607 |
| Brazil v Japan | Brazil 74% | Brazil | correct call | 0.140 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Paraguay | Paraguay +1.5 | -123 | 7.5pp | won | +0.81 | +1.0pp |
| Netherlands v Morocco | Under 2.5 | -135 | 5.7pp | won | +0.74 | -0.3pp |
| Brazil v Japan | Over 2.5 | +115 | 4.4pp | won | +1.15 | -1.5pp |
| Brazil v Japan | Brazil -0.5 | -135 | 4.8pp | won | +0.74 | -3.1pp |
Sun · June 281 advance call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.14
Advance calls — who goes through, graded
| Tie | Our call | Advanced | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa v Canada | Canada 73% | Canada | correct call | 0.145 |
Sat · June 276 calls · 4/6 hit · Brier 0.4010 bets · +1.5u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan v Argentina | 1%/6%/93% (0-3) | 1–3 | correct call | 0.009 |
| Algeria v Austria | 30%/25%/45% (1-1) | 3–3 | missed | 0.846 |
| Colombia v Portugal | 34%/26%/40% (1-1) | 0–0 | missed | 0.826 |
| DR Congo v Uzbekistan | 36%/31%/32% (1-0) | 3–1 | correct call | 0.611 |
| Panama v England | 2%/8%/90% (0-2) | 0–2 | correct call | 0.018 |
| Croatia v Ghana | 78%/16%/7% (2-0) | 2–1 | correct call | 0.079 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan v Argentina | Argentina ‡ | -667 | 9.5pp | won | +0.15 | +0.0pp |
| Jordan v Argentina | Over 2.5 | -182 | 4.6pp | won | +0.55 | -0.0pp |
| Algeria v Austria | Algeria ‡ | +295 | 5.7pp | lost | -1.00 | +1.9pp |
| Colombia v Portugal | Colombia ‡ | +265 | 8.0pp | lost | -1.00 | -2.1pp |
| Colombia v Portugal | Under 2.5 | +123 | 6.2pp | won | +1.23 | +0.0pp |
| DR Congo v Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan ‡ | +400 | 13.4pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.9pp |
| Panama v England | Under 3 | +137 | 7.5pp | won | +1.37 | -0.0pp |
| Panama v England | England ‡ | -667 | 6.7pp | won | +0.15 | -0.0pp |
| Panama v England | England -2 | -141 | 6.7pp | push | +0.00 | -0.0pp |
| Croatia v Ghana | Over 2.25 | +102 | 5.3pp | won | +1.02 | — |
Fri · June 266 calls · 4/6 hit · Brier 0.3413 bets · +1.5u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt v Iran | 31%/29%/39% (0-1) | 1–1 | missed | 0.749 |
| New Zealand v Belgium | 3%/9%/88% (0-2) | 1–5 | correct call | 0.024 |
| Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | 38%/29%/33% (1-1) | 0–0 | missed | 0.752 |
| Uruguay v Spain | 10%/21%/69% (0-1) | 0–1 | correct call | 0.152 |
| Norway v France | 16%/20%/63% (0-2) | 1–4 | correct call | 0.201 |
| Senegal v Iraq | 69%/21%/10% (1-0) | 5–0 | correct call | 0.145 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt v Iran | Iran ‡ | +280 | 13.9pp | lost | -1.00 | +3.9pp |
| Egypt v Iran | Iran +0.5 | -164 | 7.7pp | won | +0.61 | +3.6pp |
| New Zealand v Belgium | Belgium ‡ | -526 | 7.6pp | won | +0.19 | +0.2pp |
| New Zealand v Belgium | Belgium -2 | -130 | 5.1pp | won | +0.77 | +0.9pp |
| Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | Under 2.5 | -130 | 6.9pp | won | +0.77 | -1.3pp |
| Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | Cape Verde +0.25 | -128 | 7.3pp | half-won | +0.39 | -0.0pp |
| Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | Cape Verde ‡ | +205 | 6.1pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
| Uruguay v Spain | Spain ‡ | -161 | 9.8pp | won | +0.62 | -0.2pp |
| Uruguay v Spain | Under 2.5 | -120 | 6.3pp | won | +0.83 | -0.0pp |
| Norway v France | Under 3.5 | -164 | 5.3pp | lost | -1.00 | -2.0pp |
| Norway v France | France -1 | +108 | 5.2pp | won | +1.08 | +3.6pp |
| Norway v France | France ‡ | -154 | 4.9pp | won | +0.65 | +3.0pp |
| Senegal v Iraq | Draw | +550 | 6.0pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.2pp |
Thu · June 256 calls · 2/6 hit · Brier 0.5910 bets · -1.1u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye v United States | 29%/23%/48% (1-1) | 3–2 | missed | 0.789 |
| Paraguay v Australia | 32%/30%/37% (0-1) | 0–0 | missed | 0.734 |
| Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire | 5%/14%/81% (0-2) | 0–2 | correct call | 0.059 |
| Ecuador v Germany | 25%/27%/48% (0-1) | 2–1 | missed | 0.864 |
| Japan v Sweden | 64%/20%/16% (2-0) | 1–1 | missed | 1.064 |
| Tunisia v Netherlands | 5%/13%/81% (0-2) | 1–3 | correct call | 0.055 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye v United States | Over 2.5 | -135 | 4.1pp | won | +0.74 | +2.3pp |
| Türkiye v United States | Türkiye +0.5 | +101 | 4.1pp | won | +1.01 | +3.5pp |
| Türkiye v United States | Türkiye ‡ | +310 | 5.4pp | won | +3.10 | +3.5pp |
| Paraguay v Australia | Over 2 | +135 | 5.3pp | lost | -1.00 | -7.8pp |
| Paraguay v Australia | Australia +0.25 | -145 | 5.2pp | half-won | +0.34 | -2.7pp |
| Paraguay v Australia | Australia ‡ | +320 | 14.6pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.1pp |
| Ecuador v Germany | Draw | +390 | 7.1pp | lost | -1.00 | +1.0pp |
| Japan v Sweden | Over 2.5 | -120 | 4.5pp | lost | -1.00 | -1.3pp |
| Japan v Sweden | Japan ‡ | -110 | 13.0pp | lost | -1.00 | -10.4pp |
| Tunisia v Netherlands | Draw | +1000 | 4.7pp | lost | -1.00 | +2.6pp |
Wed · June 246 calls · 5/6 hit · Brier 0.3611 bets · +2.1u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia v Mexico | 14%/21%/65% (0-1) | 0–3 | correct call | 0.187 |
| South Africa v South Korea | 15%/23%/62% (0-1) | 1–0 | missed | 1.173 |
| Switzerland v Canada | 47%/26%/27% (1-1) | 2–1 | correct call | 0.422 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar | 56%/24%/21% (1-0) | 3–1 | correct call | 0.297 |
| Scotland v Brazil | 7%/14%/79% (0-2) | 0–3 | correct call | 0.067 |
| Morocco v Haiti | 86%/11%/3% (2-0) | 4–2 | correct call | 0.034 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia v Mexico | Mexico ‡ | -110 | 14.5pp | won | +0.91 | -0.0pp |
| South Africa v South Korea | South Korea -0.5 | -145 | 4.9pp | lost | -1.00 | +3.7pp |
| South Africa v South Korea | South Korea ‡ | -149 | 4.4pp | lost | -1.00 | +1.7pp |
| Switzerland v Canada | Switzerland -0.5 | +137 | 6.0pp | won | +1.37 | -2.6pp |
| Switzerland v Canada | Under 2.25 | +105 | 4.8pp | lost | -1.00 | +3.2pp |
| Switzerland v Canada | Switzerland ‡ | +140 | 7.1pp | won | +1.40 | -1.5pp |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar | Qatar ‡ | +700 | 8.9pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.7pp |
| Scotland v Brazil | Brazil -1.5 | +105 | 7.0pp | won | +1.05 | -0.5pp |
| Scotland v Brazil | Over 2.5 | -115 | 6.8pp | won | +0.87 | +0.3pp |
| Scotland v Brazil | Brazil ‡ | -312 | 6.8pp | won | +0.32 | -0.0pp |
| Morocco v Haiti | Morocco ‡ | -526 | 5.5pp | won | +0.19 | +1.2pp |
Tue · June 234 calls · 3/4 hit · Brier 0.467 bets · -0.3u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v Uzbekistan | 80%/14%/5% (2-0) | 5–0 | correct call | 0.063 |
| Colombia v DR Congo | 76%/17%/6% (2-0) | 1–0 | correct call | 0.091 |
| England v Ghana | 88%/10%/2% (2-0) | 0–0 | missed | 1.594 |
| Panama v Croatia | 7%/14%/78% (0-2) | 0–1 | correct call | 0.072 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia v DR Congo | Under 2.25 | -115 | 4.7pp | won | +0.87 | -2.1pp |
| Colombia v DR Congo | Colombia ‡ | -185 | 13.9pp | won | +0.54 | +1.0pp |
| England v Ghana | Under 3 | -122 | 7.2pp | won | +0.82 | -3.1pp |
| England v Ghana | England ‡ | -526 | 8.0pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
| England v Ghana | England -2 | -103 | 7.8pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
| Panama v Croatia | Over 2.5 | -127 | 5.3pp | lost | -1.00 | +1.1pp |
| Panama v Croatia | Croatia ‡ | -204 | 14.1pp | won | +0.49 | +2.7pp |
Mon · June 224 calls · 4/4 hit · Brier 0.188 bets · +4.4u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Iraq | 90%/8%/2% (2-0) | 3–0 | correct call | 0.018 |
| Norway v Senegal | 47%/26%/28% (1-1) | 3–2 | correct call | 0.428 |
| Argentina v Austria | 72%/20%/9% (1-0) | 2–0 | correct call | 0.128 |
| Jordan v Algeria | 13%/18%/69% (0-2) | 1–2 | correct call | 0.148 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Iraq | Iraq +2.5 | +121 | 6.8pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.5pp |
| Norway v Senegal | Norway -0.5 | +134 | 5.1pp | won | +1.34 | +0.0pp |
| Norway v Senegal | Norway ‡ | +130 | 4.7pp | won | +1.30 | +0.0pp |
| Argentina v Austria | Argentina -1 | -120 | 7.9pp | won | +0.83 | — |
| Argentina v Austria | Under 2.5 | -108 | 6.3pp | won | +0.93 | — |
| Argentina v Austria | Argentina ‡ | -213 | 6.2pp | won | +0.47 | — |
| Jordan v Algeria | Algeria ‡ | -189 | 5.8pp | won | +0.53 | +0.6pp |
| Jordan v Algeria | Algeria -1 | -118 | 7.3pp | push | +0.00 | +0.0pp |
Sun · June 214 calls · 2/4 hit · Brier 0.624 bets · -1.8u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Iran | 63%/21%/16% (1-0) | 0–0 | missed | 1.042 |
| New Zealand v Egypt | 13%/26%/61% (0-1) | 1–3 | correct call | 0.239 |
| Spain v Saudi Arabia | 92%/7%/1% (2-0) | 4–0 | correct call | 0.013 |
| Uruguay v Cape Verde | 74%/19%/7% (1-0) | 2–2 | missed | 1.203 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Iran | Iran +1 | +125 | 6.4pp | won | +1.25 | — |
| Spain v Saudi Arabia | Under 3 | +128 | 6.8pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
| Uruguay v Cape Verde | Under 2.25 | -125 | 7.2pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.6pp |
| Uruguay v Cape Verde | Uruguay ‡ | -222 | 7.9pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.4pp |
Sat · June 204 calls · 3/4 hit · Brier 0.5110 bets · +1.6u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Côte d'Ivoire | 68%/20%/13% (2-0) | 2–1 | correct call | 0.159 |
| Ecuador v Curaçao | 89%/10%/2% (2-0) | 0–0 | missed | 1.604 |
| Netherlands v Sweden | 69%/17%/14% (2-1) | 5–1 | correct call | 0.145 |
| Tunisia v Japan | 10%/21%/70% (0-1) | 0–4 | correct call | 0.146 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Côte d'Ivoire | Under 3.5 | -182 | 7.2pp | won | +0.55 | -0.7pp |
| Germany v Côte d'Ivoire | Germany -1 | -118 | 5.0pp | push | +0.00 | +2.2pp |
| Germany v Côte d'Ivoire | Germany ‡ | -196 | 4.1pp | won | +0.51 | +0.7pp |
| Ecuador v Curaçao | Under 2.5 | +138 | 6.6pp | won | +1.38 | +0.6pp |
| Ecuador v Curaçao | Ecuador ‡ | -714 | 4.5pp | lost | -1.00 | -1.9pp |
| Ecuador v Curaçao | Ecuador -2 | -120 | 5.9pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.0pp |
| Netherlands v Sweden | Netherlands ‡ | -135 | 13.8pp | won | +0.74 | +1.3pp |
| Tunisia v Japan | Japan ‡ | -179 | 7.7pp | won | +0.56 | +3.6pp |
| Tunisia v Japan | Japan -1 | -120 | 4.7pp | won | +0.83 | +1.5pp |
| Tunisia v Japan | Under 2.5 | -120 | 4.0pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.0pp |
Fri · June 194 calls · 3/4 hit · Brier 0.415 bets · +1.9u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland v Morocco | 16%/27%/57% (0-1) | 0–1 | correct call | 0.281 |
| Brazil v Haiti | 96%/3%/1% (4-0) | 3–0 | correct call | 0.003 |
| United States v Australia | 38%/27%/35% (1-1) | 2–0 | correct call | 0.584 |
| Türkiye v Paraguay | 45%/26%/29% (1-1) | 0–1 | missed | 0.777 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil v Haiti | Brazil ‡ | -909 | 9.3pp | won | +0.11 | -0.5pp |
| United States v Australia | Under 2.5 | -102 | 4.7pp | won | +0.98 | -0.1pp |
| United States v Australia | Draw | +330 | 4.5pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.4pp |
| Türkiye v Paraguay | Over 2.5 | +115 | 4.1pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.0pp |
| Türkiye v Paraguay | Paraguay ‡ | +285 | 4.0pp | won | +2.85 | -0.0pp |
Thu · June 184 calls · 3/4 hit · Brier 0.354 bets · -0.7u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia v South Africa | 64%/22%/14% (1-0) | 1–1 | missed | 1.040 |
| Mexico v South Korea | 59%/24%/17% (1-0) | 1–0 | correct call | 0.252 |
| Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina | 79%/14%/7% (2-0) | 4–1 | correct call | 0.069 |
| Canada v Qatar | 83%/13%/4% (2-0) | 6–0 | correct call | 0.049 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia v South Africa | Czechia ‡ | -125 | 10.4pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
| Mexico v South Korea | Over 2 | -125 | 7.9pp | lost | -1.00 | +6.1pp |
| Mexico v South Korea | Mexico ‡ | +105 | 12.5pp | won | +1.05 | +1.3pp |
| Canada v Qatar | Canada ‡ | -345 | 8.8pp | won | +0.29 | +0.0pp |
Wed · June 174 calls · 2/4 hit · Brier 0.677 bets · -1.4u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v DR Congo | 80%/15%/5% (2-0) | 1–1 | missed | 1.367 |
| Uzbekistan v Colombia | 7%/17%/76% (0-2) | 1–3 | correct call | 0.088 |
| England v Croatia | 58%/25%/18% (1-0) | 4–2 | correct call | 0.272 |
| Ghana v Panama | 23%/25%/53% (0-1) | 1–0 | missed | 0.936 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal v DR Congo | Portugal -1.5 | -102 | 6.2pp | lost | -1.00 | +2.9pp |
| Portugal v DR Congo | Portugal ‡ | -357 | 5.4pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.1pp |
| Portugal v DR Congo | Under 2.5 | +107 | 4.3pp | won | +1.07 | -0.6pp |
| Uzbekistan v Colombia | Colombia -1.5 | +114 | 6.0pp | won | +1.14 | +1.3pp |
| Uzbekistan v Colombia | Colombia ‡ | -270 | 6.2pp | won | +0.37 | +0.0pp |
| Uzbekistan v Colombia | Under 2.5 | +105 | 4.3pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
| Ghana v Panama | Over 2.5 | +140 | 7.9pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
Tue · June 164 calls · 4/4 hit · Brier 0.124 bets · -0.2u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Senegal | 65%/22%/14% (1-0) | 3–1 | correct call | 0.192 |
| Iraq v Norway | 6%/15%/78% (0-2) | 1–4 | correct call | 0.074 |
| Argentina v Algeria | 79%/15%/5% (2-0) | 3–0 | correct call | 0.070 |
| Austria v Jordan | 71%/18%/11% (2-0) | 3–1 | correct call | 0.130 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq v Norway | Under 2.5 | +138 | 6.7pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.2pp |
| Iraq v Norway | Iraq +2 | -125 | 4.8pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.5pp |
| Argentina v Algeria | Argentina ‡ | -227 | 13.0pp | won | +0.44 | +0.7pp |
| Austria v Jordan | Over 3 | +141 | 4.6pp | won | +1.41 | -1.1pp |
Mon · June 154 calls · 0/4 hit · Brier 1.313 bets · -3.0u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Egypt | 67%/21%/12% (1-0) | 1–1 | missed | 1.083 |
| Iran v New Zealand | 69%/21%/10% (1-0) | 2–2 | missed | 1.119 |
| Spain v Cape Verde | 94%/5%/1% (3-0) | 0–0 | missed | 1.785 |
| Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | 6%/19%/76% (0-1) | 1–1 | missed | 1.238 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Egypt | Belgium ‡ | -169 | 7.5pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.7pp |
| Spain v Cape Verde | Spain ‡ | -1429 | 4.5pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
| Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | Uruguay ‡ | -222 | 9.8pp | lost | -1.00 | +1.4pp |
Sun · June 144 calls · 2/4 hit · Brier 0.615 bets · -1.4u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Curaçao | 91%/8%/1% (2-0) | 7–1 | correct call | 0.014 |
| Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador | 14%/28%/58% (0-1) | 1–0 | missed | 1.159 |
| Netherlands v Japan | 45%/25%/30% (1-1) | 2–2 | missed | 0.860 |
| Sweden v Tunisia | 47%/26%/27% (1-1) | 5–1 | correct call | 0.426 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador | Over 1.75 | -118 | 4.9pp | lost | -1.00 | — |
| Netherlands v Japan | Over 2.5 | +100 | 4.6pp | won | +1.00 | — |
| Netherlands v Japan | Japan ‡ | +282 | 4.2pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.5pp |
| Sweden v Tunisia | Over 2 | -154 | 4.4pp | won | +0.65 | — |
| Sweden v Tunisia | Tunisia ‡ | +335 | 4.0pp | lost | -1.00 | -3.7pp |
Sat · June 134 calls · 1/4 hit · Brier 0.864 bets · +3.7u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar v Switzerland | 6%/13%/82% (0-2) | 1–1 | missed | 1.434 |
| Brazil v Morocco | 56%/25%/19% (1-0) | 1–1 | missed | 0.920 |
| Haiti v Scotland | 14%/19%/67% (0-2) | 0–1 | correct call | 0.168 |
| Australia v Türkiye | 24%/24%/52% (1-1) | 2–0 | missed | 0.900 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar v Switzerland | Switzerland -1.5 | -149 | 8.9pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
| Australia v Türkiye | Australia +0.5 | +125 | 8.8pp | won | +1.25 | -0.7pp |
| Australia v Türkiye | Over 2.5 | +105 | 6.8pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.3pp |
| Australia v Türkiye | Australia ‡ | +440 | 5.8pp | won | +4.40 | -0.3pp |
Fri · June 121 call · 1/1 hit · Brier 0.593 bets · -1.1u
Calls — the forecast, graded
| Match | Logged H/D/A | Final | Hit | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States v Paraguay | 38%/27%/36% (1-1) | 4–1 | correct call | 0.589 |
Bets — paper picks, settled
| Match | Pick | Odds | Edge | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States v Paraguay | Paraguay ‡ | +300 | 11.0pp | lost | -1.00 | -0.7pp |
| United States v Paraguay | Over 2.0 | -115 | 10.6pp | won | +0.87 | -0.0pp |
| United States v Paraguay | Paraguay +0.5 | -125 | 10.5pp | lost | -1.00 | +0.0pp |
‡ the model under-prices draws (June-20 audit: p_draw ≈19% vs ≈36% realised), which inflates favourite-side 1X2 (moneyline) edges — treat win-side moneyline picks with extra caution until the draw calibration is re-checked after MD3.
Risky · model vs market
The Shadow Book
82 settled, 36W-37L, -2.88u paper (flat 1u, not staked); 1X2 3W-7L -4.58u; model-priced 33W-30L +1.70u show the risky calls
| Day | Match | Conviction | Odds | Edge | Model | Result | Units* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador | Ecuador -0.25 | +113 | 22.8pp | 68% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 14 | Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador | Ecuador ‡ | +165 | 20.9pp | 58% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 15 | Iran v New Zealand | Iran ‡ | -120 | 16.7pp | 69% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 16 | France v Senegal | Under 2.5 | +117 | 8.1pp | 54% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 16 | Iraq v Norway | Under 3 | -120 | 8.4pp | 61% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 16 | Argentina v Algeria | Argentina -1.5 | +132 | 12.8pp | 55% | won | +1.32 |
| Jun 17 | England v Croatia | Under 2.25 | -108 | 8.4pp | 58% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 17 | Ghana v Panama | Panama +0.5 | -145 | 19.3pp | 77% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 17 | Ghana v Panama | Over 2 | -125 | 11.2pp | 65% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 17 | Ghana v Panama | Panama ‡ | +225 | 23.3pp | 53% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 18 | Czechia v South Africa | Czechia -0.5 | -115 | 12.2pp | 64% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 18 | Mexico v South Korea | Mexico -0.5 | +106 | 11.7pp | 59% | won | +1.06 |
| Jun 18 | Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Switzerland -1 | +100 | 24.0pp | 73% | won | +1.00 |
| Jun 18 | Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Over 2.5 | +105 | 10.1pp | 58% | won | +1.05 |
| Jun 18 | Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Switzerland ‡ | -179 | 18.0pp | 79% | won | +0.56 |
| Jun 18 | Canada v Qatar | Canada -1.5 | -115 | 8.1pp | 60% | won | +0.87 |
| Jun 19 | Scotland v Morocco | Under 2.25 | -120 | 13.5pp | 66% | won | +0.83 |
| Jun 19 | Brazil v Haiti | Brazil -2.5 | -110 | 20.9pp | 71% | won | +0.91 |
| Jun 19 | Brazil v Haiti | Over 3.75 | +100 | 14.5pp | 62% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 19 | United States v Australia | Australia +1 | -120 | 25.4pp | 79% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 19 | United States v Australia | Australia ‡ | +425 | 17.1pp | 35% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 20 | Germany v Côte d'Ivoire | Under 3 | -110 | 8.2pp | 59% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 20 | Ecuador v Curaçao | Under 3 | -101 | 10.2pp | 60% | won | +0.99 |
| Jun 20 | Netherlands v Sweden | Over 2.75 | -115 | 16.1pp | 67% | won | +0.87 |
| Jun 20 | Netherlands v Sweden | Netherlands -0.5 | -141 | 12.6pp | 69% | won | +0.71 |
| Jun 20 | Tunisia v Japan | Japan -1 | +110 | 11.0pp | 58% | won | +1.10 |
| Jun 20 | Tunisia v Japan | Under 2.25 | -105 | 8.8pp | 58% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 21 | New Zealand v Egypt | Under 2.25 | +100 | 19.2pp | 67% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 21 | Spain v Saudi Arabia | Under 3.25 | -105 | 11.7pp | 61% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 21 | Uruguay v Cape Verde | Uruguay -1 | -120 | 11.0pp | 64% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 22 | France v Iraq | Under 3.5 | +102 | 13.4pp | 62% | won | +1.02 |
| Jun 22 | Jordan v Algeria | Over 2.5 | -108 | 11.8pp | 62% | won | +0.93 |
| Jun 22 | Jordan v Algeria | Algeria -1 | -103 | 10.2pp | 59% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 23 | Portugal v Uzbekistan | Under 3.25 | -122 | 17.4pp | 70% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 23 | Portugal v Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan +2 | +109 | 10.3pp | 57% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 23 | Colombia v DR Congo | Colombia -1 | +100 | 18.8pp | 68% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 23 | England v Ghana | England -2 | +110 | 11.2pp | 58% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 23 | England v Ghana | Under 3 | -108 | 9.3pp | 60% | won | +0.93 |
| Jun 23 | Panama v Croatia | Croatia -1 | -125 | 18.5pp | 72% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 23 | Panama v Croatia | Over 2.75 | -108 | 10.5pp | 60% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 24 | Czechia v Mexico | Mexico -0.5 | -109 | 14.6pp | 65% | won | +0.92 |
| Jun 24 | Czechia v Mexico | Mexico ‡ | -105 | 15.7pp | 65% | won | +0.95 |
| Jun 24 | South Africa v South Korea | Under 2.25 | +105 | 9.3pp | 56% | won | +1.05 |
| Jun 24 | Switzerland v Canada | Switzerland -0.5 | +153 | 8.6pp | 47% | won | +1.53 |
| Jun 24 | Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar | Qatar +1 | +138 | 18.0pp | 59% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 24 | Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar | Under 3 | -105 | 12.1pp | 62% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 24 | Scotland v Brazil | Brazil -1.5 | +106 | 10.3pp | 57% | won | +1.06 |
| Jun 24 | Scotland v Brazil | Over 2.5 | -112 | 8.6pp | 60% | won | +0.89 |
| Jun 24 | Morocco v Haiti | Under 3 | +102 | 12.7pp | 62% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Türkiye v United States | Over 2.75 | -115 | 8.5pp | 60% | won | +0.87 |
| Jun 25 | Paraguay v Australia | Over 1.75 | -118 | 9.8pp | 61% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Paraguay v Australia | Australia +0.25 | -125 | 8.5pp | 62% | half-won | +0.40 |
| Jun 25 | Paraguay v Australia | Australia ‡ | +340 | 15.5pp | 37% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire | Under 3.25 | -122 | 18.0pp | 71% | won | +0.82 |
| Jun 25 | Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire | Curaçao +2 | +110 | 9.7pp | 56% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 25 | Ecuador v Germany | Ecuador +1 | +100 | 20.2pp | 69% | won | +1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Ecuador v Germany | Under 3 | -130 | 18.0pp | 72% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 25 | Japan v Sweden | Japan -0.5 | -115 | 12.0pp | 64% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Japan v Sweden | Japan ‡ | +140 | 23.5pp | 64% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Tunisia v Netherlands | Under 3.25 | +102 | 19.0pp | 66% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 25 | Tunisia v Netherlands | Tunisia +2.5 | -102 | 14.2pp | 64% | won | +0.98 |
| Jun 26 | Egypt v Iran | Over 1.75 | -130 | 8.9pp | 63% | won | +0.77 |
| Jun 26 | New Zealand v Belgium | Under 3.5 | +104 | 14.8pp | 62% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 26 | Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | Under 2.25 | -112 | 12.3pp | 63% | won | +0.89 |
| Jun 26 | Uruguay v Spain | Spain -1 | +117 | 12.3pp | 57% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 26 | Uruguay v Spain | Under 2.25 | -108 | 10.1pp | 60% | won | +0.93 |
| Jun 26 | Norway v France | Under 3.25 | -125 | 11.3pp | 64% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 26 | Senegal v Iraq | Under 3 | +106 | 24.5pp | 71% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 26 | Senegal v Iraq | Iraq +2 | -122 | 19.9pp | 73% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 27 | Jordan v Argentina | Argentina -2 | -120 | 19.2pp | 72% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 27 | Algeria v Austria | Over 2 | +141 | 26.3pp | 67% | won | +1.41 |
| Jun 27 | Algeria v Austria | Austria -0.25 | +130 | 9.4pp | 51% | half-lost | -0.50 |
| Jun 27 | Algeria v Austria | Austria ‡ | +235 | 15.8pp | 45% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 27 | Colombia v Portugal | Colombia +0.5 | -105 | 10.4pp | 60% | won | +0.95 |
| Jun 27 | Colombia v Portugal | Under 3 | -141 | 8.2pp | 64% | won | +0.71 |
| Jun 27 | DR Congo v Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan +0.5 | +126 | 20.8pp | 64% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 27 | DR Congo v Uzbekistan | Under 2.5 | -115 | 17.2pp | 69% | lost | -1.00 |
| Jun 27 | Panama v England | England -2 | -112 | 12.2pp | 64% | push | +0.00 |
| Jun 27 | Panama v England | Under 3.25 | -112 | 9.3pp | 60% | won | +0.89 |
| Jun 27 | Croatia v Ghana | Croatia -0.5 | -125 | 23.9pp | 78% | won | +0.80 |
| Jun 27 | Croatia v Ghana | Over 2 | -135 | 13.9pp | 69% | won | +0.74 |
| Jun 27 | Croatia v Ghana | Croatia ‡ | -110 | 27.1pp | 78% | won | +0.91 |
*hypothetical flat-1u, on paper — these are risky calls (severe model–market gap), tracked to test the model, not staked.
‡ the model under-prices draws (June-20 audit: p_draw ≈19% vs ≈36% realised), which inflates favourite-side 1X2 (moneyline) edges — treat win-side moneyline picks with extra caution until the draw calibration is re-checked after MD3.